Auto loan defaults sink to new low
Auto loan defaults dropped to an historic low in May, according to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices released on Tuesday.
Analysts for S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian determined the auto loan default rate dipped by 8 basis points on a sequential basis and 7 basis points on a year-over-year comparison to settle at 0.86 percent.
The reading marked the third consecutive monthly decrease for the auto loan default segment, sending it below the previous historic level. Analysts reported the previous auto loan default rate low of 0.92 percent came in April of last year.
To give the new auto loan mark some context, index readings going back 10 years showed the high point arrived during the Great Recession as the February 2009 level spiked during a seven-month climb to 2.75 percent.
The auto loan performance wasn’t the only part of the latest rundown from S&P and Experian to be noteworthy as analysts spotted historical lows for four of the five national indices based on May data.
The composite index a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults posted its second consecutive historical low of 0.88 percent in May, a decrease of 9 basis points.
The first mortgage default rate reported an historical low, down 9 basis points to 0.74 percent.
The second mortgage default rate also posted a second consecutive historical low of 0.42 percent, down 1 basis point from the previous month.
The bank card default rate reported its first decrease since January with a rate of 2.98 percent, a decrease of 20 basis points. The movement represented its largest reported decrease since October 2013.
“Consumer credit default rates are below pre-crisis levels, at new lows and continue to drift down,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“These low levels should not come as a surprise: interest rates haven’t turned up, consumer debt service as a proportion of household income is close to its record low, and the Federal Reserve reported that consumer wealth was at a peak in the first quarter of 2015,” Blitzer continued.
“Nor should one assume that debt levels and defaults are low because no one is spending; on the contrary, May light vehicle sales were the highest since July 2005 and retail sales jumped,” he went on to say.
“The economy looks good, consumers are spending and credit usage is rising,” Blitzer added. “The combination of low debt service and economic expansion should ease worries about the fallout some fear when the Federal Reserve boosts interest rates.”
Analysts also mentioned four of the five major cities included in their monthly updated continued their downward trend, reporting negative month-over-month default rate results in May.
Dallas led the way, reporting an historical low of 0.70 percent, down 20 basis points from the previous month.
New York posted its second consecutive decrease, reporting an historical low of 0.95 percent, a decrease of 15 basis points.
Miami also reported its second consecutive decrease, down 3 basis points to a reported rate of 1.17 percent.
Chicago reported its third consecutive decrease, posting a default rate of 1.00 percent, down 5 basis points from the previous month.
Los Angeles reported the only rate increase, an increase of 5 basis points to 0.95 percent, its third consecutive monthly increase.
“Two of the five cities — New York and Dallas — reported their lowest mortgage default rates since the series started in April 2004. The other three cities reported post-recession lows,” Blitzer said.
“During the housing collapse, Miami was one of the hardest hit cities in the country,” he continued. “Los Angeles also experienced a sharp rise in defaults and foreclosures.
These figures are another indication that housing is recovering,” he went on to say. “Moreover, other data on financial difficulties confirm that foreclosures are declining and consumers' capability and willingness to borrow are improving.”
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.