SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

Aside from the condition of the car, its mileage is going to be the most important element in a used-car shopper’s purchase, according to an Edmunds.com survey.

And that likely has not gone without notice by automakers, who Edmunds believes will “lean on low-mileage to offset the negative effects of ballooning used inventory.”

In its Q1 2015 Used Vehicle Market Report, Edmunds said this has been part of a strategy by OEMs in protecting residuals, given the rise in lease penetration.

“Higher residuals help to curb the risk of weakened prices caused by a higher volume of off-lease vehicles,” the company noted in the report.

Automakers have responded to these used supply increases by lowering the mileage caps on lease contracts, Edmunds said, as they aim to keep residual values strong and lease terms steady.

Edmunds data shows that average annual allowed lease miles has decreased in the first quarter of each of the last seven years, with the latest quarter marking the first time it has dipped below 11,000.

Meanwhile, average lease terms in Q1 for the past four years have stayed between 36.2 months and 36.6 months.

But the question is, has this strategy worked? In terms of the residual value impact, said Edmunds director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell, time will tell. 

However, she adds, the mileage restrictions don’t seem to be stopping people from leasing.

Lease penetration remained above 25 percent last year, and there were 4.5 million leases written, according to the Edmunds report. There have now been five straight years of increases in annual lease volume, as the industry has rocketed back from a trough of 1.7 million leases in 2009.  And lease penetration has also been on the mend during this time frame.

These gains have helped lead to a nice pool of used inventory for the market.

“For the past few years, off-lease vehicles have provided a much needed shot in the arm to the depleted used vehicle population,” Edmunds said in the report.

“But leasing’s historical pace threatens serious ramifications for the used-car market going forward. At these unprecedented leasing levels, off-lease vehicles are expected to continue to account for millions more near-new vehicles than the used market has ever seen,” it adds.

The report shows one specific example of where the used-car pricing impact been felt:  “near-new” (ages 5 years or younger) car segments.

For instance, retail prices for near-new subcompacts fell 2.8 percent year-over-year in the first quarter, according to Edmunds. Meanwhile, near-new compacts were off 2.0 percent, near-new entry sports cars fell 2.1 percent and near-new midsize cars dipped 1.6 percent. Prices on near-new large cars dropped 0.5 percent.

Not only has there been  “amplified leasing” of these vehicles, thus driving supply, but consumers are also moving over to truck segments since gas prices are down. 

All of this works to lower prices. 

“The recent surge in leases for small and midsize cars has spurred an avalanche of post-lease vehicles returning to the used car market, and with larger supply comes lower prices,” Caldwell said. “There’s no sign that this surge in leasing will slow down any time soon, so shoppers can continue to expect prices of these cars to stay relatively low as they continue to flood the secondhand market in the coming months and years.”

However, as Caldwell and the Edmunds report note above, the industry is responding to protect residuals.