DETROIT -

It’s likely that certified pre-owned sales won’t just hit an all-time high for the fourth straight year. The CPO market will probably break another record in 2015 and then again in years to come.

That’s according to a presentation made by Cox Automotive leaders on Thursday morning in Detroit during the release of the 2014 AutoTrader.com Certified Pre-Owned Study.

Auto Remarketing caught up with AutoTrader’s Michelle Krebs and Rick Wainschel — who led the presentation, along with Manheim’s Tom Webb — by phone later in the day to talk about the study.

When asked about the potential ceiling for annual sales, Wainschel pointed to something that Webb “confidently” forecasted during the event:  next year will be another best-ever for CPO and several more record years could be in store.

 “One of the things I’ve heard Tom say is that CPO has the capacity to double from where it is right now, which (would be) somewhere in the 4 to 5 million range,” said Rick Wainschel,. “Now, whether it gets there remains to be seen — and there’s a lot of convergence between values on CPO versus new, and things of that sort, where the economy goes. But what it does say is that we are by no means at a peak in the CPO space.”

And supply may be a big part of that, as lease returns roll in. Interestingly enough, though, CPO sales are actually climbing more rapidly than supply, according to data from Manheim Consulting.

Not that supply is short.

“Over the next few years, more than 9 million certifiable vehicles will be hitting the market, making now the time for consumers, manufacturers and dealers to pay close attention to the CPO landscape,” Wainschel said in a press release from AutoTrader. “The insights from this study clearly show that consumers are more open than ever to CPO vehicles, and if dealers and manufacturers can turn shoppers into owners, they are well-positioned to build long-lasting relationships with those consumers.” 

Another interesting dynamic was this one pointed out by Krebs: there is a much wider net on the supply and demand side.

“The premium brands have always had strong CPO programs. They’ve had demand there. But what we’re seeing, because of a wider array of leasing being available — for example to a Hyundai, to a Kia — that kind of supply will come to the market that treally didn’t exist before. Especially with Millennials coming into the market, there’s a more diverse array of vehicles at various price points available, which therefore widens the market for CPO.”

AutoTrader’s CPO study takes a comprehensive and deep dive into the various influences in the market. Beyond better supply and demand, it goes on to point out a multitude of good signs for the certified business, including these Wainschel highlighted: greater familiarity with CPO,  a more positive opinion and consideration for these cars, greater first-time consideration and a higher willingness among shoppers to pay the premium.

Or, as he would add: “There is all these very, very healthy factors coming into play, where CPO is very much in favor with consumers, but it also has the convergence of the market dynamics and the inventory dynamics that will allow (CPO) to become even more mature than it is now.”

Of, course, there are challenges and things automakers and dealers must improve upon to reach those targets. One of which is education. 

“CPO vehicles provide shoppers with a good value, but the key to getting them to buy the vehicles is education,” Krebs said in the release. “CPO still isn’t clearly understood, so dealers and manufacturers need to ensure that they are communicating clearly — early and often — about what CPO is so they can capitalize on these opportunities to build lifelong, happy customers.” 

Stay tuned to Auto Remarketing for more on that. Additionally, Wainschel will provide more detail on these findings during his presentation on Tuesday at the CPO Forum during Used Car Week. Go to UsedCarWeek.biz or cpo.autoremarketing.com to learn more.