SOUTHFIELD, Mich. -

Polk analysis confirmed what dealers likely are already seeing if they’re spending much time walking around service bays or the auction lanes nowadays.

The U.S. vehicle fleet population is continuing to get older.

Polk reported today that the average age of all units on the road now stands at a record high of 11.4 years. Analysts arrived at that figure based on review of more than 247 million U.S. car and light truck registrations earlier this year.

For passenger cars, average age also met a record high at 11.4 years, while the average age of light trucks also increased, to a record 11.3 years.

Polk expects this trend to continue, while a shift in the fleet of vehicles in operation (VIO) is underway.

Average Age
Year     Cars    Trucks   Total Vehicles
2002     9.8       9.4     9.6
2003     9.9       9.5     9.7
2004     10.0     9.5     9.8
2005     10.1     9.5     9.8
2006     10.2     9.5     9.9
2007     10.3     9.6     10.0
2008     10.4     9.8     10.1
2009     10.5     10.1   10.3
2010     10.8     10.5   10.6
2011     11.1     10.8   10.9
2012     11.3     11.1    11.2
2013     11.4     11.3    11.4

Aging Fleet Volumes Shifting

As part of its most recent analysis and the growth of vehicle registrations in the past few years, Polk found that the volume of 6- to 11-year-old vehicles also is declining, while the group of vehicles older than 12 years is on the rise.

Analysts contend this trend supports the increase in average age and creates a potential strategic shift in the aftermarket as business owners consider options for growth and opportunity.

“These are interesting times for the automotive aftermarket," said Mark Seng, vice president of Polk’s aftermarket practice. 

“Customers from independent and chain repair shops should be paying close attention to their business plans and making concerted efforts to retain business among the do-it- for-me audience, while retailers have a unique and growing opportunity with potential consumers wrenching on their own vehicles,” Seng continued.

New Forecast Outlines 2018 Expectations

Polk recently developed a new forecast for vehicles in operation (VIO) through 2018, the first of its kind in the industry.

With the rebound in new vehicle registrations, Polk is forecasting the total VIO to grow 5 percent to more than 260 million vehicles by 2018. 

During the past five years with the significant decline in new vehicle registrations, analysts explained the market has seen both segments of the aftermarket enjoy strong growth potential.

During that time period, Polk indicated the 6- to 11-year-old segment grew marginally, and vehicles more than 12 years old increased by more than 20 percent. 

However, the firm expects the 6- to 11-year-old vehicle segment to shrink by more than 20 percent and the 12-plus year-old segment to grow at a rate almost half of the prior five-year period.  

Armed with this new data and unique analysis, Polk reiterated that it is trying to help aftermarket providers better understand market conditions, identify growth opportunities and target business plans for the future, recognizing the changing fleet mix will provide new opportunities for all segments of the aftermarket, including components suppliers, retailers, dealers and independent repair shops.

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