Subprime Growth Appears Far From Over
Given all the increases in credit availability, particularly the escalating subprime auto finance market, Jesse Toprak was asked how long this cornucopia can be sustained.
But the chief analyst with Cars.com flipped it around: we actually haven’t seen the last of the subprime auto expansion, he said.
“I don’t think we’re done with subprime growth,” Toprak said in an interview this week.
There is greater comfort with subprime finance, he said, and entities like captive finance companies now have a greater ability to manage risk.
Granted, various parties have expressed concern regarding subprime auto financing — this week's much-talked-about story in The New York Times has generated a good deal of buzz and backlash — and governmental groups are keeping a sharp eye on the segment.
But industry observers have actually found that delinquencies are rather low these days in the subprime segment.
In its most recent report on auto-backed securities — which covered the month of May — Fitch Ratings subprime sector posted “solid” results in May, “as losses came down while delinquencies stayed relatively stable.”
Analysts determined subprime 60-day delinquencies ticked up to 2.67 percent month-over-month in May but settled 3 percent below the rate recorded in May of last year.
Fitch also mentioned annualized net losses in subprime posted an unexpected 11 percent decline month-over-month to 3.48 percent in May. The rate was 10 percent better than a year earlier.
As for how much subprime auto financing has actually grown, the latest Equifax National Consumer Credit Trends Report indicates that the total number of new loans originated through April for subprime borrowers — consumers with risk scores of 640 or lower — came in at 2.6 million, representing 32 percent of all vehicle installment contracts originated during the first four months of 2014.
The total balance of subprime auto loans now stands at $46.2 billion, an eight-year high and representing 28.2 percent of the total balance of new auto loans, according to Equifax.
Equifax deputy chief economist Dennis Carlson said in the report all sectors of the auto lending have seen growth in subprime this year.
“This is good news as a fully functioning second-chance market is essential for a healthy economy,” he said.
And the momentum continued to roll into July.
In the first few weeks of this month, there was a 7.5 percent year-over-year increase and a 3.91 percent month-over-month increase in subprime vehicle finance approvals, according to CNW Research’s latest Retail Automotive Summary.
Elsewhere in the report, CNW drilled down specifically into used-car financing, noting that FICO scores among used buyers has remained on a downward trek, hitting 575.6 this month.
“Banks and credit unions are pushing hard to get subprime loans to customers,” CNW president Art Spinella said in the report.
Editor's Note: Subprime Auto Finance News Editor Nick Zulovich contributed to this report.