Overall bankruptcy filings dropped by double digits year-over-year at the halfway point of 2022. But experts said after looking deeper at two specific trends that these data points “tell a different story.”

According to data provided by Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics, total filings came in at 185,303 cases during the first six months of this year, representing a 15% decrease from the 217,047 total filings during the same period a year ago.

Epiq reported total consumer filings also registered a 15% decrease, as the 175,112 filings during the first half of 2022 were down from the 204,679 filings during the first six months of 2021.

Experts then noted the 10,191 total commercial filings for the first half of 2022 represented a 17% decline from the commercial filing total of 12,278 for the first half of 2021.

The 1,765 total commercial Chapter 11 filings during the first six months of the year were an 18% decrease from the 2,155 total filings during the same period in 2021, according to data provided by Epiq Bankruptcy Analytics.

Experts added that total filings in the first half of 2022 point to a pace for the full year that could be the lowest since the 348,521 bankruptcies recorded by the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts in 1984, prompting them to ask in a news release: “Will total, business, and consumer filings remain at this pace for the second half?”

Looking at the bankruptcy data within a shorter timeframe perhaps might have given an answer since It showed at least one trend moving higher.

Epiq indicated the 447 commercial Chapter 11 filings in June represented a 29% increase from the 347 filings in May.

Experts reported overall commercial filings decreased 7% in June, as the 1,864 filings were down from the 1,999 commercial filings registered in June of last year.

Small business filings, captured as subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, experienced an 8% drop from 106 in June 2021 to 98 in June of this year, according to Epiq.

The firm went on to note that total bankruptcy filings came in at 32,175 in June, a 6% decline from last June’s total of 34,291. Noncommercial bankruptcy filings totaled 30,311 in June, also registering a 6% softening from the June 2021 noncommercial total of 32,292.

“The year-over-year filing counts continue to show declines, but month-over-month we see growth in Chapter 13 filings that when coupled with the growth in corporate Chapter 11s, tell a different story,” Epiq senior vice president Chris Kruse said in the news release.

“Turbulence in the market including inflation concerns, labor shortages in key industries, and a downward shift in housing prices all point toward increases in the months ahead,” Kruse added.

American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) executive director Amy Quackenboss offered a similar perspective through the same news release.

“Tightening credit markets amid increasing interest rates, elevated prices due to inflation and global supply concerns are presenting financially distressed families and businesses with more economic dilemmas,” Quackenboss said. “Bankruptcy provides a shield to the mounting economic challenges being experienced by financially struggling consumers and companies.”

ABI has partnered with Epiq Bankruptcy to provide the most current bankruptcy filing data for analysts, researchers and members of the news media.