Auto defaults rise for 9th time in 11 months
Interest rates have been rising for more than a year, and auto defaults are on a similar trajectory.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian now have seen auto defaults climb nine times in the past 11 months.
According to data through January for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, the auto default rate moved another 7 basis points higher to land at 0.94%.
The default rate now is higher than when officials declared the pandemic’s arrival. In February 2020, the auto default rate stood at 0.89%, according to the database built by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian.
Meanwhile, analysts found the composite rate — which represents a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults increased by 6 basis points in January to come in at 0.69%. The composite rate hasn’t been this high since May 2020 when it was 0.78%.
Elsewhere in the January data that S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian released on Tuesday, the bank card default rate jumped 27 basis points higher to 3.04% while the first mortgage default rate increased 5 basis points to 0.48%.
Meanwhile, analysts noticed three of the five major metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) showed higher default rates in January compared to previous month.
Dallas posted the largest increase, rising up 11 basis points to 0.73%. Chicago also jumped by double digits, increasing 10 basis points to 0.89%.
Miami moved up by 8 basis points to 0.86%.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian noticed Los Angeles remained unchanged at 0.40%, while New York dipped 4 basis points to 0.61%.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts noted the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.