Experian: We’re Seeing a Turnaround in Auto Loan Delinquencies
SCHAUMBURG, Ill. — Enthusiasm from Experian Automotive's Melinda Zabritski picked up considerably during her recent Webinar when it was time to discuss the second-quarter amount of vehicle loans with a 30-day or 60-day delinquencies.
"This is very good news that we're happy to present," Zabritski began as she revealed the specific data Experian offers on a quarterly basis.
The company's director of automotive credit indicated the 30-day delinquency rate fell 5.88 percent from 3.07 percent in the second quarter of 2009 to 2.89 percent in the second quarter of this year.
Zabritski went on to note the 60-day delinquency rate dropped by double digits — 11.85 percent. The total figure slid down from 0.8 percent in 2009's second quarter to 0.71 percent in the second quarter of 2010.
"We started to see delinquencies turn around in the first quarter, and now we're seeing in the second quarter a universal decrease." Zabritski declared during in-depth Web analysis of trends impacting the automotive industry titled, "State of the Automotive Finance Market, First Half of 2010."
Not surprisingly as Experian found delinquency rates falling, the total balance on those particular loans dropped in the second quarter, as well.
Among 30-day delinquencies, the total balance fell $3.3 billion from the same time period a year ago to about $17.2 billion. For 60-day delinquencies, the balance slid down from just above $5.3 billion to slightly above $4 billion.
Scott Waldron, president of Experian Automotive, offered a similar stance about the directions delinquencies are taking.
"Seeing a drop in delinquencies year-over-year is a positive sign for both the lending and automotive industries," Waldron stated.
"The fact that we've seen a drop for the second consecutive quarter is an indication that there could be a light at the end of the tunnel for the economy," he speculated.
Turning next to a discussion about originations, Experian offered a wide array of data that dealt specifically with used-vehicle financing.
The average credit score for a consumer financing a used vehicle in the second quarter came in at 679, two points higher than a year ago and 24 points higher than the first quarter of this year.
Looking at it geographically, states with consumers who had the lowest average credit scores were the ones also often tied to higher delinquency rates. These lower-average score states include Mississippi (628), South Carolina (634), Texas (640), Alabama (642) and Arizona (649).
Meanwhile, states with the highest average consumer credit score in the second quarter turned out to be Wisconsin (728), Minnesota (728), New Hampshire (725), North Dakota (725) and Vermont (723).
As far as the entire portfolio of used-vehicle financing, Experian determined the segments tied to prime and super-prime borrowers grew marginally in the second quarter, while loan tiers associated with non-prime, subprime and deep subprime buyers contracted slightly.
Activity on a year-over-year comparison for prime and super-prime edged up by 0.36 percent, while it slipped by 0.38 percent in the remaining segments.
The company defines the spectrum as:
Super prime
Scorex Plus: 740 plus
VantageScore: 801-990
Prime
Scorex Plus: 680-739
Vantage Score: 701-800
Non-prime
Scorex Plus: 620-679
VantageScore: 641-700
Subprime
Scorex Plus: 550-619
VantageScore: 601-640
Deep subprime
Scorex Plus: less than 550
VantageScore: 501-600
Furthermore, Zabritski shared that used-vehicle financing by deep subprime borrowers dropped 7.6 percent in the second quarter. However, she highlighted strong gains in three categories: subprime (5.1 percent), nonprime (4.4 percent) and prime (2.5 percent).
Moving on to data about dealer type in connection with used-vehicle financing, Experian noticed a shift here, too.
Financing by franchise dealers increased by 2.3 percent to 70.32 percent of all used-vehicle loans. The share for independent dealers shrank by 5.1 percent in the second quarter to 29.68 percent.
"Just as we saw midway through 2008 and throughout 2009 when we had seen the shift not only to used vehicles, overall, but we saw a shift with independent dealers taking a bigger piece of the pie, that shift has definitely turned around again," Zabritski explained.
Experian pointed out that franchise and independent dealers seem to be complementing each other in terms of the kinds of borrowers they served in the second quarter.
The company found that franchise dealers increased their activity with non-prime, subprime and deep subprime borrowers by 2.13 percent, while the business with prime and super-prime customers was off by 1.36 percent.
At the same time, independent stores saw their business with prime and super-prime buyers increase by 2.97 percent, while activity with non-prime, subprime and deep subprime customers slipped 1.19 percent.
Experian also revealed plenty of data about new-vehicle financing, too.
Zabritski believes lending institutions appeared to loosen credit requirements, providing a higher percentage of loans to customers in the nonprime and subprime risk tiers. The percentage of nonprime and subprime loans for new vehicles grew a combined 4.5 percent, from 16 percent in the second quarter of last year to 16.73 percent in the second quarter of this year.
However, she added lenders were still cautious about new-vehicle loans to deep subprime as the percentage of these loans dropped from 1.56 percent in 2009's second quarter to 1.48 percent in the most recent quarter.
"It appears as though lenders are testing the waters with customers who have less than stellar credit," Zabritski surmised
"While lenders have not loosened their criteria to the levels we saw three years ago, we do see an upward movement in loans to those middle risk tiers. This could be a very positive sign for the auto industry, as it could open loans to a wider group of potential customers," she added.
No matter if it's a used-vehicle or new-vehicle loan, the average amount financed has gone up, according to Experian.
For used vehicles, the average loan amount climbed $1,027 to $16.581 from the second quarter of last year. For new units, the rise wasn't quite as much, a jump of $883 to $25,223.
The average monthly payment on these loans also moved up, too. Year-over-year, Experian said used-vehicle loan payments climbed $13 in the second quarter to $343. For new vehicles, it moved $5 higher to $455.
While the average contract term for new-vehicle loans remained the same in the second quarter (62 months), Experian determined the average used-vehicle loan length increased slightly from 57 to 58 months.
Finally, the rates tied to those loans changed, too. Experian noticed APR for both used and new vehicles moved down on a year-over-year comparison.
Used-vehicle rates slid down from 9.29 percent to 9.02 percent in the second quarter. Zabritski speculated that because of so many zero percent APR incentives, the new-vehicle rate average slid down to 4.98 percent from 5.55 percent.
Experian also revealed the top 20 lenders by market share as of the second quarter:
Toyota: 6.66 percent
GMAC: 6.3 percent
Chase: 5.9 percent
Wells Fargo: 5.35 percent
Ford: 3.71 percent
Honda: 3.59 percent
Bank of America: 2.2 percent
Capital One: 1.91 percent
Nissan/Infiniti: 1.85 percent
Fifth Third Bank: 1.31 percent
US Bank: 1.27 percent
BMW Bank: 1.24 percent
Hyundai: 1.21 percent
Huntington: 1.17 percent
AmeriCredit: 1.13 percent
Santander: 1.07 percent
BB&T Bank: 1.01 percent
Citizens Auto: 0.98 percent
SunTrust: 0.92 percent
USAA Federal: 0.85 percent
Moving on, top used-vehicle lenders include:
Wells Fargo: 6.58 percent
Chase: 4.28 percent
Toyota: 3.51 percent
GMAC: 2.45 percent
Capital One: 2.06 percent
Santander: 1.55 percent
Bank of America: 1.54 percent
Credit Acceptance: 1.28 percent
AmeriCredit: 1.27 percent
BMW Bank: 1.15 percent
US Bank: 1.14 percent
Fifth Third Bank: 1.13 percent
Honda: 1.12 percent
Huntington: 1.09 percent
CarMax: 1.05 percent
Ford: 1.03 percent
USAA Federal: 0.96 percent
BB&T Bank: 0.80 percent
Navy FCU: 0.79 percent
Citizens Auto: 0.78 percent
Finally, top new-vehicle lenders include:
GMAC: 13.09 percent
Toyota: 12.23 percent
Chase: 8.78 percent
Ford: 8.45 percent
Honda: 7.95 percent
Nissan/Infiniti: 4.38 percent
Bank of America: 3.36 percent
Hyundai: 3.24 percent
Wells Fargo: 3.18 percent
Capital One: 1.63 percent
Fifth Third Bank: 1.63 percent
World Omni: 1.57 percent
US Bank: 1.5 percent
BMW Bank: 1.39 percent
SunTrust: 1.39 percent
BB&T Bank: 1.38 percent
Citizens Auto: 1.34 percent
Huntington: 1.3 percent
Volkswagen: 1.23 percent
Mercedes-Benz: 1.05 percent