Fitch Upgrades Ford’s Credit Ratings and Outlook
CHICAGO — Reflecting the overall improvement by the Blue
Oval, Fitch Ratings upgraded the issuer default ratings for both Ford and Ford
Motor Credit earlier this week.
Drawing positive reaction for the automaker, Fitch raised
the ratings from BB+ to BBB-. Analysts indicated the rating outlook for both
Ford and Ford Motor Credit is stable.
"The upgrade of Ford's ratings reflects the automaker's
significantly improved financial performance, balance sheet repair and product
portfolio improvement that have taken place over the past several years," Fitch
highlighted.
"Since the last recession, Ford's management has been
heavily focused on increasing profitability, growing liquidity, lowering debt
and reducing the company's pension obligations," the firm continued.
"Fitch believes that the work that has been accomplished has
put the company in a solid position to withstand the significant cyclical and
secular pressures faced by the global auto industry," analysts went on to say. "Importantly,
the ratings are based on Fitch's projections of the company's performance
through the economic cycle, and are predicated on Fitch's expectation that Ford's
liquidity position, cost structure and free cash flow generating potential will
provide the company with sufficient financial flexibility to maintain an
investment-grade credit profile in a period of economic stress."
When learning of the decision, Ford executive vice president
and chief financial officer Bob Shanks stated, "We are very pleased with the decision
by Fitch.
"It is an important proof point of the continued progress
the Ford team is making with our One Ford plan," Shanks continued. "Moving
forward, we will continue to focus on driving profitable growth for all of our
stakeholders. In fact, our One Ford plan includes achieving strong investment
grade ratings and maintaining investment grade throughout an economic
cycle."
Despite Ford's stronger financial position, Fitch believes the
OEM continues to face a number of risks. The firm suggested that the potential
pitfalls include the ongoing uncertainty regarding the strength and pace of the
global economic recovery, and the durability of global demand.
"Although the global auto market is expected to continue
growing, Fitch expects the rate of growth is likely to be slower than earlier
projections, as much of Western Europe experiences recessionary conditions and
demand growth slows in key emerging markets like China and India," analysts
explained.
"In the U.S., high unemployment, ongoing housing weakness
and high energy prices will put some pressure on growth, as well," they
continued. "Additional risks reflected in the low-investment grade profile
include high debt levels, a large pension deficit, industry competitive
dynamics, and a relatively weak market position in Asia."
Fitch emphasized that its analysis included a focus on the impact
a severe automotive market downturn would have on Ford's credit profile.
Given the company's operating leverage, working capital
profile, and capital expenditure needs, Fitch expects that the Blue Oval would
burn a "substantial" amount of cash in a downturn.
"However, Fitch believes the company's net cash position of
nearly $10 billion at year-end 2011 and other sources of liquidity give Ford
the ability to withstand this likely cash burn without creating liquidity
pressures," analysts acknowledged.
"In addition, the company has some discretion in various
cash deployment actions that could relieve liquidity pressures in a downturn,"
they went on to say. "The changes in Ford's business profile also put it in a
better position to face a downturn. The company has a lower break-even volume
as a result of its restructuring actions over the past several years, and Ford's
more balanced product portfolio has put it in a better position to weather the
likely mix shifts to smaller vehicles typically seen in economic downturns."
Fitch added that it could consider a future revision of the rating
outlook to positive or an upgrade of the ratings if Ford's margins and free
cash flow continue to grow, resulting in further financial flexibility.
"This would most likely result from additional increases in
both vehicle net pricing and market share in Ford's largest markets, while
operating costs remain contained. Further declines in debt and pension
obligations could also contribute to a positive rating action," analysts
surmised.
On the other hand, Fitch pointed out that it could consider
a revision in the rating outlook to negative or a downgrade in the ratings if a
very severe downturn in the global auto market leads to a significant weakening
of Ford's liquidity position.
"As noted, however, the effect of a downturn on Ford's credit
profile has been incorporated into the ratings, and Fitch believes the company
is in a significantly better position to withstand a future downturn than it was
prior to the last recession," analysts reiterated.
"Fitch could also consider a negative rating action if
management turns away from its focus on strengthening the balance sheet," they
continued. "In particular, an increase in debt to finance an acquisition or to
fund shareholder-friendly activities would be viewed negatively. Fitch does not
anticipate that the company will increase debt to engage in these sorts of
activities in the intermediate term. Problems with operational execution or
declining market share trends could also drive negative credit actions,
particularly if combined with a market downturn."