NEW YORK -

Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) examined how states are modifying their use of federal unemployment benefit programs connected to the pandemic and identified four finance companies whose automotive securitizations might have the most resulting risk exposure.

Analysts recapped in a report distributed this week that a total of 26 states have announced plans to opt out of some or all of the federal unemployment benefit programs provided under the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (ARP).

Under the ARP, KBRA explained that federal unemployment benefits do not expire until after the week ending Sept. 6. But beginning on June 12 and continuing through July 31, KBRA said residents of these 26 states will no longer be eligible to receive federal unemployment benefits, which include:

— An extra $300 each week in federal pandemic unemployment compensation (FPUC), on top of state benefits

— Federal pandemic unemployment assistance (FPUA) available for gig workers and the self-employed

— Federal pandemic emergency unemployment compensation (FPEUC), which provides federal benefits for the long-term unemployed who have exhausted their maximum number of weeks on state benefits

According to KBRA’s report, the states making these decisions include:

— Alaska
— Iowa
— Mississippi
— Missouri
— Alabama
— Idaho
— Indiana
— Nebraska
— New Hampshire
— North Dakota
— West Virginia
— Wyoming
— Arkansas
— Florida
— Georgia
— Ohio
— South Carolina
— South Dakota
— Texas
— Utah
— Montana
— Oklahoma
— Maryland
— Tennessee
— Arizona
— Louisiana

“The main rational that state policymakers have made for opting out is that the supplemental benefits incentivize workers to stay home, making it difficult for businesses to hire and for the economy to recover,” KBRA said.

Analysts determined that these 26 opt-out states account for 44.8% of the total U.S. population, about 149 million people.

And as of May’s federal labor report, KBRA indicated that 3.63 million residents in these states are receiving unemployment benefits, roughly 2.4% of the population.

Meanwhile, analysts went on to mention the unemployment rate in these states stood at 5.1% in May, well below the national average of 5.8% and that of the states choosing not to opt out of federal benefits (6.4%).

Which finance companies have most risk exposure?

Before identifying the quartet of finance companies analysts anticipate as potentially being most impacted by policy decisions in these states, KBRA explained how it arrived at its projections.

“The first indication of how these early opt-outs may affect consumer ABS credit performance may come in July’s servicer reports, which report June collections, but we expect a clearer picture to develop in the August and September remittance reports (July and August collections), as most consumer ABS issuers only report borrowers who are 30 days delinquent,” KBRA said.

As a result, analysts based its forecast using May’s asset-level disclosures.

KBRA said World Omni’s non-prime and prime auto loan ABS shelves are the most heavily exposed, with 89% and 82%, respectively, of their outstanding securitized loans originated in the aforementioned states, with more than 80% originated in Florida (47.1%), Georgia (18.4%), Alabama (8.9%), and South Carolina (7.0%).

“Although delinquency rates are at historically low levels, any credit weakness arising from early state opt-outs should be most apparent in World Omni’s remittance reports over the next few months,” analysts said.

KBRA also indicated the other non-prime auto loan ABS shelves that provide monthly asset-level disclosures — Santander, GM Financial and Exeter Financial — also have relatively high exposures, ranging from 57.7% to 63.1% of their outstanding securitized pools.

“Meanwhile, unsecured consumer loan and prime auto loan ABS issuers listed (excluding World Omni) are more nationally diversified and should be less affected until the expiration of all federal benefits under the ARP in early September,” analysts went on to say.