Monthly auto default rises remain below 6 basis points
While the auto finance default rate has ticked up during 11 of the past 12 months, none of those month-over-month increases have been more than 6 basis points.
The latest rise according to the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices came in below that level, as data through July compiled by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian showed the auto default reading at 0.66%, which was 4 basis points higher than June.
During this 12-month stretch, the highest increase occurred in November when the auto default rate stood at 0.44%.
While the streak of increases might seem ominous, the latest overall auto default rate still is 33 basis points below the start of 2020 when it was 0.99, according to the data from S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian.
Delving deeper into the July information, analysts noticed the composite rate that represents a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults also rose 4 basis points to 0.57%.
And mimicking the pattern, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian indicated the first mortgage default rate also ticked up 4 basis points to 0.42%.
Going counter to those sectors was bank cards, as S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian noticed the default rate for this credit product fell 11 basis points to 2.44%. That’s almost half the highest reading going back a decade for that credit product, as the S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian database had the default rate for bank cards at 4.40% in May 2020.
Looking at the data by geography, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian reported four of the five major metro areas they track showed higher default rates in July compared to the previous month.
Analysts determined Miami had the largest increase, rising 14 basis points to 1.13%. Chicago rose nine basis points to 0.67%. Los Angeles was six basis points higher at 0.52%, while Dallas increased 5 basis points to 0.62%.
Conversely, New York dropped six basis points to 0.65%.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts noted the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.