National FICO Scores Show Decline, But Stabilization Occurring
MINNEAPOLIS, Minn. — A comparison of national FICO Scores from 2008, 2009 and 2010 show that consumer credit risk has climbed over the past two years.
Looking at prime scores, FICO found that nearly 19 percent of consumers had scores from 800-850 in April 2008. This compares to less than 18 percent by April 2010.
On the other side of the spectrum, scores in the lower tiers from 500-549, about 8 percent of consumers fell into this range in April 2008, compared to 9 percent in April 2010.
"While these are small movements, they are important because even slight movements can impact loan portfolios," explained Andy Jennings, FICO's chief research officer and head of FICO Labs, the company's research arm.
"More interestingly, the performance of consumers at a given score has changed as the economy slumped. It's critical that lenders have analytic tools in place to understand how a score of, say 700, will perform. Will it perform as a 700 performed last year? Will it be riskier? Banks must be able to anticipate how macro-economic factors such as GDP, unemployment and housing prices will affect consumer risk," he continued.
On a stronger note, the data revealed that the downward migration of FICO Scores slowed between April 2009 and April 2010.
Indeed, FICO found that the 750-799 range stabilized from April of last year to April of this year. This segment includes more than 19 percent of consumers.
FICO's analysis of distribution was based on a nationwide sample of consumer credit data from Equifax.
A breakdown of distribution by population:
FICO 300-499
April 2008: 7.2 percent
April 2009: 7.4
April 2010: 6.9
FICO 500-549
2008: 8.2
2009: 8.7
2010: 9
FICO 550-599
2008: 8.7
2009: 9.1
2010: 9.6
FICO 600-649
2008: 9.6
2009: 9.5
2010: 9.5
FICO 650-699
2008: 12
2009: 12
2010: 11.9
FICO 700-749
2008: 16
2009: 15.9
2010: 15.7
FICO 750-799
2008: 19.6
2009: 19.4
2010: 19.5
FICO 800-850
2008: 18.7
2009: 18.2
2010: 17.9