COSTA MESA, Calif., and NEW YORK — Apparently, consumers are continuing to migrate to lower credit bands. In fact, the number of consumers falling into the super-prime category has dropped by 10 percent since the third quarter of 2008, as measured by VantageScore.

This has, in part, led to subprime and deep subprime outstanding balances growing by more than 33 percent over the past three years, according to the new Experian-Oliver Wyman Market Intelligence Reports.

"Our analysis further indicated that while loan originations increased by 38 percent from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009, driven primarily by a mortgage refinancing wave, the increase was limited to the most creditworthy consumers," explained Charles Chung, Experian's senior vice president and general manager of Decision Sciences.

"In fact, originations actually declined for subprime and deep subprime consumers, a reflection of lenders' continued reduced appetite for credit risk," he continued.

The companies also discovered that lenders are continuing to manage risk exposure by aggressively reducing credit lines on revolving loans such as bank cards. Over the last 12 months, bankcard credit lines decreased from $3.8 trillion to $3.1 trillion, a 17-percent drop, according to the data.

Also, the companies found that several loan products apparently experienced a leveling off of early and mid-stage delinquency rates in the second quarter of this year.

Officials indicated that this seems to be a seasonal trend, driven mostly by tax refunds in April and May and bears watching.

However, the companies pointed out that roll rates to late-stage delinquencies and charge-offs continue to be high.

In areas like California and Florida, where real-estate troubles have hurt other products, delinquency rates remain "highly elevated" over the national average across all products, the data indicated.

Taking a closer look at mortgages, the companies also recently produced a topical report on strategic defaulters, or borrowers who default on their mortgages due to the fact their home value has declined well below their mortgage balance.

In conducting this analysis, the companies said they developed a way to estimate the number of strategic defaulters and also uncovered several trends that they say can provide "important direction" for the evolution and enhancement of loan modification programs.

For instance, Experian and Oliver Wyman discovered that those in the super-prime and prime credit score categories are 50 percent more likely to do a strategic default than those with lower credit scores.

Additionally, when reviewing the "distressed" borrower population, the companies said they have uncovered a segment of borrowers that closely mimics strategic defaulters but would likely be favorable candidates for loan modification called cash-flow managers.

Unlike strategic defaulters, the companies describe these borrowers as individuals who continue to make occasional payments on their mortgage thus indicating their intention to get out of delinquency.

"While 60 percent of strategic defaulters are charged-off within six months after serious delinquency, one-third of cash-flow managers cure on their mortgage within six months after serious delinquency and another third remain less than 90 days past due," pointed out Piyush Tantia, a partner in the retail and business banking practice of Oliver Wyman.

"Therefore, cash-flow managers represent the borrowers who would make the best candidates for loan modification offers," Tantia continued. "The impact to businesses that successfully identify and address the two segments can be significant."