September auto defaults tick 2 points higher
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The auto loan default rate for September ticked up 2 basis points on a sequential basis but remained 9 basis points lower than a year earlier. The September reading also was just 7 basis points above the all-time low established this summer.
Data through September released this week by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices showed the auto rate came in at 0.92 percent.
Meanwhile, the composite rate — a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults — dipped 7 basis points in September from the previous month to settle at 0.89 percent.
The bank card default rate climbed 6 basis points from August to land at 2.77 percent.
Analysts noticed decreases in September for both first mortgage and second mortgage default rates, which came in at at 0.76 percent and at 0.47 percent, respectively. The readings marked declines of 8 and 10 basis points.
The latest update also showed four of the five major cities registered default rate decreases in September.
Dallas was the only city unchanged from last month at 0.71 percent.
Miami had the largest decrease, reporting in at 1.07 percent, which is down 39 basis points from August.
New York saw its default rate decrease by 14 basis points to 0.90 percent in September.
Chicago reported a decrease down to 1.09 percent, 12 basis points below the previous month.
Los Angeles posted a default rate of 0.74 percent, down 2 basis points for the month.
“Default rates on consumer credit and mortgage borrowing are fairly stable and close to the lowest levels seen in the last 10 years,” said David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“Debt services ratios — the proportion of income going to paying down consumer credit and mortgage debt — are close to the lowest on record since the Fed began collecting the data in 1980,” he continued. “At the same time, consumer credit and mortgage debt outstanding are rising.”
Blitzer noted consumer credit in August rose at a 5.2 percent annual rate. He pointed out mortgages as of the second quarter were up 2.1 percent over the last four quarters.
“While continued low interest rates are certainly a positive factor, the possible rate increase by the Federal Reserve is not likely to alter the picture significantly,” Blitzer said.
The committee chair also mentioned increases in spending and rising home sales are contributing to the growth in credit outstanding. He determined personal consumption expenditures in real (inflation adjusted) terms have been rising at a 3-percent annual rate since late spring and don’t show signs of a major decline.
“Sales of both new and existing homes are showing good numbers with the combined annual rate close to 6 million homes,” Blitzer said. “Consumer confidence lagged during the summer but took a jump in the latest report from the University of Michigan Survey Research Center.
“Low inflation and low interest rates were cited as strong positive factors in consumers’ expectations and rising buying plans,” he continued.
“Two possible clouds on the horizon are the slower job gains seen in the last two monthly employment reports and the timing of an interest rate move by the Fed,” Blitzer went on to say. “While job gains were softer recently, weekly initial unemployment claims remain at very low levels.
“As to the Fed’s timing, it is anyone’s guess,” he added.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.