S&P/Experian: Auto Loans Only Credit Segment to Show Month-Over-Month Improvement
NEW YORK — The S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices all climbed based on data through September, except one category — auto loans.
The auto loan default reading actually dipped from 1.31 percent in August to 1.29 percent in September, S&P and Experian revealed this week in their monthly report that assembles a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults.
The September auto loan reading also was improved year-over-year. S&P and Experian indicated the level was 2.04 percent a year ago.
The latest composite reading as well as the other three credit categories all ticked higher month-over month.
Overall, the index moved up to 2.10 percent from 2.04 percent. However, it's still lower than September of last year when it settled at 3.14 percent.
Officials shared the September readings for first mortgages, second mortgages and bank cards as well, noting month-over-month rises but the levels still falling well below year-ago marks.
First mortgage defaults moved up to 1.99 percent in September from 1.92 percent in August, but finished down from 3.02 percent in September 2010.
Second mortgages defaults crept up to 1.32 percent from 1.27 percent but settled down from 2.14 percent a year earlier.
For bank cards, this default category continued to have the highest overall reading at 5.36 percent in September, up from 5.26 percent. However a year ago, the rate stood at 7.04 percent.
Among the five major metropolitan statistical areas S&P and Experian tracks, officials discovered New York showed its highest default rates since April, increasing from 1.80 percent in August to 2.01 percent in September.
The latest data indicated Chicago, Los Angeles and Miami increased moderately to 2.47 percent, 2.12 percent and 4.59 percent in September from 2.43 percent, 2.07 percent and 4.52 percent in August, respectively.
S&P and Experian found Dallas was the only MSA where default rates fell from 1.51 percent in August to 1.33 percent in September.
Despite the movement most of these cities made, officials pointed out each one has a significantly lower reading than last September. Dallas had the lowest year-ago mark at 2.26 percent, followed by New York (3.20 percent), Los Angeles (3.48 percent), Chicago (3.56 percent) and Miami (7.61 percent).
The latest report left David Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Indices, making a cautious assessment.
"While this is only one month of data, we have not seen so many increases in default rates in about a year or more," Blitzer acknowledged.
"For most of the past three years, consumer credit default rates have been declining across both loan types and regions. September's report was the first time we saw increases in four of five regions, three of four loan types and the composite, which rose from 2.04 percent to 2.10 percent," he continued.
"Bank cards rose to 5.36 percent in September from 5.26 percent in August, which is a bit of a concern. First and second mortgage default rates also rose during the month. This is the first time we have seen the rates go up for first mortgages since November 2010," he went on to say.
Blitzer wrapped up his comments by looking at the regions, again pointing to New York, which saw the largest increase.
"Given the fragile state of both the economy and consumer confidence can, we will have to closely monitor these data over the next few months to determine if September was just a temporary blip or the reversal of the recent trend," he insisted.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, Blitzer reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.