Spinella: Subprime Continues to Take it on the Chin
BANDON, Ore. — Apparently, gaining approval on an average auto loan is easier today than it has been since October 2008; however, subprime approvals aren't so easy to obtain, according to Art Spinella, of CNW Research.
Spinella explained that while subprime approvals have gained some ground, they still remain well below the 58 percent approval rate in January 2008.
"In the preliminary July data, prime (750-plus FICO) customers are receiving a new-car auto loan 89.5 percent of the time. That's up more than 12 points since October," he continued. "Among near-prime shoppers, about 82 percent are receiving approval. The subprime customer, however, has seen some improved chances, but fewer than one in five are approved, according to CNW data."
"That may be up five points since last October, but it's a long way from the 58 percent approval rate in January 2008," he added.
Offering some insight, Spinella predicted that it may be years, if ever, before subprime approvals climb back up to their historic peak.
"Increased federal oversight and stricter internal rules have made conventional financing sources gun shy about those with poor or near-poor credit scores," he stated.
"Also hurting the subprime market: A growing percentage of repossessions. Historically, the voluntary and involuntary repossession rate was 2 to 2.5 percent. That has jumped to nearly 3.8 percent this year with delinquencies also rising dramatically," Spinella added.
An overview of CNW loan approval statistics:
January 2008
Prime: 88.4 percent
Near-Prime: 85.4 percent
Subprime: 58.2 percent
July 2008
Prime: 82.1 percent
Near-Prime: 78.3 percent
Subprime: 26.1 percent
August 2008
Prime: 80.6 percent
Near-Prime: 77.7 percent
Subprime: 20.2 percent
October 2008
Prime: 77.4 percent
Near-Prime: 73.7 percent
Subprime: 14.3 percent (lowest point since January ‘08)
January 2009
Prime: 85.19 percent
Near-Prime: 77.43 percent
Subprime: 17.29 percent
June 2009
Prime: 88.91 percent
Near-Prime: 81.72 percent
Subprime: 19.76 percent
July 2009 Preliminary:
Prime: 89.52 percent
Near-Prime: 82.28 percent
Subprime: 19.88 percent