Springtime auto default cycle reappears
Perhaps cyclical improvements in auto finance defaults during the springtime are making a notable return.
According to data through March for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian reported the auto default rate dropped 7 basis points on a sequential basis to land at 0.88%.
Just before the pandemic arrived, the auto default rate also dipped 7 basis points from 0.89% in February 2020 to 0.81% a month later.
And in 2019, that two-month stretch produced an improvement of 5 basis points, as the auto default rate dipped from 0.99% to 0.94%.
Those timeframes are often when consumers get their federal income tax refunds and sometimes use those resources to get current on their monthly payments.
The IRS database showed the average refund distributed through April 14 for individual tax filers this year was $2,840, which was 8.5% less than 2021.
Meanwhile, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian reported the composite rate — which represents a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults — ticked up 1 basis point in March to 0.76%.
In other areas of consumer credit, analysts found that the first mortgage default rate moved up 2 basis points to 0.55%, while the bankcard default rate rose sharply on a sequential comparison, climbing from 3.18% to 3.37%.