CHICAGO — Overall, consumers may not be struggling as much financially as some reports have indicated, according to TransUnion.

In fact, while auto delinquencies generally go down from the fourth quarter of year-end to the first quarter of the following year, this year's data indicates a double-digit drop.

"For the past six years, TransUnion's Trend Data database has reported an average decrease of 7.6 percent in 60-day auto delinquency rates between the fourth and first quarters, which may be attributed to seasonality effects within auto delinquency," Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services group, explained to SubPrime Auto Finance News this week.   

"The nearly 18 percent decline between fourth quarter 2007 and first quarter 2008 is more than two times the recent average, indicating that the auto finance industry may not be as bad off as it relates to handling delinquencies," he continued.

On a year-over-year, basis, Turek said delinquency rates stayed basically flat, coming in at 0.65 percent, compared with 0.64 percent.

On a nationwide basis, delinquencies were highest in Louisiana at 1.19 percent, followed by Alabama at 1.07 percent.

On the other end of the spectrum, North Dakota posted the lowest delinquency rate at 0.30 percent, followed closely by Montana at 0.35 percent and Wyoming at 0.37 percent.

Another positive note Turek pointed out was that the average auto debt grew nationally by 0.75 percent for the first of this year to $12,833. On a year-over-year basis, the climb is even greater at 1.88 percent, jumping nearly $240 from $12,597 from the first quarter of 2007.

According to TransUnion, the steepest increases in average auto debt were in Alabama at 4.2-percent growth, Louisiana at 2.9 percent and Maine at 2.6 percent.

On the other hand, the largest decline could be found in Washington, D.C. at negative 4 percent, followed by Hawaii, down 2.2 percent.

The largest state median for auto debt was discovered in Nevada, at $16,034, followed by Arizona at $15,272.

The lowest auto debt came in for Michigan, which posted average debt of $10,610.

"The availability of home equity for financing auto purchases has diminished significantly in states like Nevada and Arizona, thus contributing to higher auto loan debt," said Turek.  

"Even states that have the highest 60-day delinquency rates like Louisiana and Alabama have shown a decrease over the prior quarter. According to the IRS, individual income tax refunds were larger (up 3.5 percent) and consumers filed earlier than in the previous year. It is plausible the tax refunds from the government are helping consumers with their debt burden," he hypothesized.

Interestingly enough, the largest improvements in delinquency from the previous quarter could be found in Hawaii, a 42-percent decrease from 1.03 to 0.60 percent; Maryland, a 33-percent decline from 0.79 to 0.53 percent; and Rhode Island, down 32 percent from 0.84 to 0.57 percent.

Looking ahead, TransUnion officials indicate that they expect a continued rise in average auto debt as consumers seek a solution to higher energy prices. 

One such solution could involve consumers trading out of vehicles that have lost value or have lower payments for newer, more fuel-efficient cars, thereby leading to higher overall debt as the new auto loans will be further from their respective payoff dates, the company noted.

"Our current forecasting models indicate that the national 60-day auto delinquency rate is expected to gradually rise from a value of 0.65 percent in the first quarter of 2008 to 0.75 percent by year end," Turek reported. 

"This is not a material difference from the recent high of 0.79 in the fourth quarter of 2007, and the gradual increase might generally be attributed to seasonality effects in auto loan delinquency. However, we might see an as-yet unquantified reduction in auto loan delinquency based on this 0.75 percent forecast, as the more conservative underwriting standards and more aggressive collections efforts on the part of  many auto lenders gain momentum and begin to bear fruit through the rest of the year and 2009," he explained.

As far as future results for individual states, TransUnion pointed to Louisiana (1.3 percent) as the area to experience the highest average delinquency rate in 2008, while Montana (0.2 percent) will likely show the lowest level of delinquency.

State rank from highest to lowest in average balance of active bank auto trades:

1. Nevada: $16,034.43 (ratio of bank auto trades 60 days or more past due: 0.91%)

2. Arizona: $15,271.71 (0.79%)

3. Texas: $15,193.20 (0.74%)

4. Washington, D.C.: $15,188 (0.95%)

5. California: $14,963.56 (1.06%)

6. Hawaii: $14,908.96 (0.60%)

7. Utah: $14,769.57 (0.65%)

8. Louisiana: $14,704.97 (1.19%)

9. Alaska: $14,669.68 (0.37%)

10. Wyoming: $14,616.94 (0.37%)

11. New Mexico: $14,591.78 (0.59%)

12. Florida: $14,467.84 (0.83%)

13. Georgia: $13,982.66 (0.87%)

14. Alabama: $13,794.11 (1.07%)

15. Maryland: $13,710.67 (0.53%)

16. North Carolina: $13,617.68 (0.54%)

17. South Carolina: $13,466.76 (0.68%)

18. Virginia: $13,446.86 (0.49%)

19. Mississippi: $13,413.56 (1.06%)

20. Tennessee: $13,133.12 (0.79%)

21. Delaware: $12,986.94 (0.53%)

22. Washington: $12,971.19 (0.56%)

23. Oregon: $12,952.51 (0.78%)

24. Idaho: $12,893.58 (0.59%)

25. New Jersey: $12,812.98 (0.44%)

26. Oklahoma: $12,743.78 (0.65%)

27. Colorado: $12,735.29 (0.62%)

28. Montana: $12,691.18 (0.35%)

29. Arkansas: $12,435.90 (0.79%)

30. West Virginia: $12,273.73 (0.54%)

31. Iowa: $12,057.27 (0.40%)

32. Rhode Island: $11,965.28 (0.57%)

33. Illinois: $11,884.94 (0.63%)

34. Connecticut: $11,858.64 (0.56%)

35. Missouri: $11,851.99 (0.49%)

36. Massachusetts: $11,801 (0.60%)

37. Kansas: $11.771.04 (0.54%)

38. New York: $11,733.01 (0.50%)

39. Vermont: $11,571.21 (0.59%)

40. Minnesota: $11,568.68 (0.45%)

41. Indiana: $11,489.24 (0.63%)

42. New Hampshire: $11,487.44 (0.65%)

43. North Dakota: $11,413.14 (0.30%)

44. Kentucky: $11,380.28 (0.79%)

45. Pennsylvania: $11,249.03 (0.45%)

46. Maine: $11,240.93 (0.74%)

47. Wisconsin: $11,122.10 (0.55%)

48. South Dakota: $11,048.99 (0.48%)

49. Ohio: $10,934.87 (0.43%)

50. Nebraska: $10,635.43 (0.47%)

51. Michigan: $10,610.20 (0.55%)