CHICAGO — Along with sharing its analysis of 60-day delinquency rates and regional trends that unfolded as 2010 closed, TransUnion also discussed what it believes could happen this year.

TransUnion determined the national 60-day auto delinquency rate — the ratio of loan borrowers 60 or more days past due — remained relatively flat as last year ended, edging upward only slightly between the third and fourth quarters. Analysts found the fourth-quarter rate settled at 0.59 percent, ticking higher by 1.72 percent from the third quarter's reading of 0.58 percent.

However, TransUnion discovered the year-over-year delinquency rate at the national level fell by 27.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The firm said the reading stood at 0.81 percent at the end of 2009.

Delving deeper into its fourth-quarter data, TransUnion found vehicle loan delinquency was highest in Louisiana and Mississippi at 1.08 percent and 1.04 percent, respectively. Conversely, the firm indicated the lowest rates were in the upper Midwest — North Dakota (0.24 percent), Michigan (0.34 percent) and Minnesota (0.35 percent).

Moving on, TransUnion noticed the largest improvements in delinquency from the previous quarter came in the District of Columbia, which saw its rate fall 22.1 percent from 0.95 percent. The data showed New Hampshire made a strong improvement, too, sliding down 17.6 percent from a rate of 0.51 percent.

Despite some gains in D.C. and New Hampshire, TransUnion pinpointed that loan delinquency rates rose in 32 states since the third quarter of 2010. Posting some of the highest spikes were Wyoming (a 95.7-percent increase to 0.45 percent), New Mexico (a 49.1-percent increase to 0.82 percent) and Idaho (a 45.1-percent increase to 0.74 percent).

On a national basis, TransUnion stated the average vehicle debt per borrower rose slightly quarter-over-quarter from $12,500 to $12,602. The firm added year-over-year vehicle debt remained essentially flat in the fourth quarter.

Analysts determined borrowers residing within D.C. hold the largest average debt burden at $15,693. Those consumers are followed by Wyoming at $14,217. On the other end of the spectrum are borrowers in Nebraska, who hold the lowest average at $10,998.

The firm noted states with the steepest quarterly increases in average vehicle debt on a percentage basis were Utah (up 3.4 percent), D.C. (up 3.1 percent) and North Dakota (up 2.9 percent). TransUnion indicated Nebraska experienced the sharpest drop in average vehicle debt (down 1.3 percent), followed by Wyoming (down 1.1 percent).

Also of note from its fourth-quarter data, TransUnion highlighted that year-over-year national bank auto originations increased by 28 percent — marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth.

"As expected, the national delinquency rate changed very little during the fourth quarter as this period typically exhibits the least amount of seasonality. The good news is that TransUnion expects national auto delinquency rates to continue to be well below the peak of 0.86 percent — a rate experienced during the heart of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008," explained Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services group.

"This trend toward fiscal responsibility is reflected in year-over-year results as auto delinquency rates now have dropped 27.2 percent since fourth quarter 2009," he continued. "On a state-level basis, 18 states experienced a drop in their quarter-to-quarter delinquency rates, while only three states showed an increase on a year-over-year basis."

TransUnion Makes Delinquency Forecast

TransUnion projected that this year's vehicle loan delinquency rate will continue to experience seasonal ups and downs — falling to 0.48 percent by mid-year and increasing to 0.56 percent at the conclusion of 2011.

"Since the beginning of the recession, TransUnion's national and state forecasting models have accurately tracked the national 60-day auto delinquency rates, which are impacted by economic factors such as per capita disposable income, interest rates for new car loans, unemployment rates, and new-vehicle registrations," Turek asserted.

"Our forecast for the fourth quarter of 2011 is that auto delinquency will reach a rate near 0.6 percent," he projected. "Based on our current economic assumptions, TransUnion believes that the 60-day auto delinquency rate will continue to follow seasonal patterns and gradually begin to stabilize throughout 2011."

TransUnion Shares Overview of U.S. Consumer Credit Status

After offering its analysis of vehicle loans, TransUnion touched on other parts of the U.S. credit market.

TransUnion's quarterly analysis of trends in the mortgage industry found that the national mortgage loan delinquency rate — the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due — decreased for the fourth consecutive quarter at the end of 2010, dropping to 6.41 percent.

Analysts reiterated that this statistic, which is traditionally seen as a precursor to foreclosure, reflects a decrease of 0.47 percent from the third quarter when the reading was 6.44 percent. They pointed out it's the smallest decline since the recession ended in the summer of 2009.

Year-over-year, TransUnion discovered mortgage borrower delinquency is down approximately 7 percent from a rate of 6.89 percent in the fourth quarter 2009.

The firm revealed that the average national mortgage debt per borrower decreased again in the fourth quarter. The 0.59-percent decline left the average at $189,046, down from the previous quarter's figure of $190,176.

On a year-over-year basis, TransUnion said the fourth-quarter average represents a 2.4-percent decrease from the fourth quarter 2009 average mortgage debt per borrower level of $193,690.

Turning over to its quarterly analysis of trends in the credit card industry, TransUnion determined that the national credit card delinquency rate — the ratio of bankcard borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their bank-issued credit cards — decreased to 0.82 percent in the fourth quarter. That rate is down almost 32 percent year-over-year.

"With the economic recovery in full swing, the decrease in the ratio of bank card borrowers delinquent has flattened out considerably compared to last quarter when credit card delinquencies edged downward by only 1.2 percent," Turek explained.

Finally, TransUnion discovered national average credit card borrower debt — defined as the aggregate balance on all bank-issued credit cards for an individual bankcard borrower — remained virtually flat in the fourth quarter. The average ticked up by just $1 from the previous quarter's reading to $4,965.

On a year-over-year basis, analysts said average cardholder debt was down 8.62 percent.