TransUnion: Delinquencies Decline for Seventh Consecutive Quarter, Auto Debt Increases Marginally
CHICAGO — According to TransUnion, national auto delinquency rates have not only shown a decline for the seventh consecutive quarter, but also remain at historically low levels.
Dropping from .49 percent in the first quarter to .44 percent at the end of 2Q, the rate of borrowers 60 or more days past due continues to decline.
On the other hand, national auto debt has increased slightly from the first quarter of this year, marking an .83 percent increase from $12,585 in 1Q to $12,689 in 2Q. Moreover, auto debt has risen marginally year-over-year, as well, showing a .37 percent increase from 2010 Q2’s $12,643 to $12,698 this year.
The company also noted that “although auto delinquencies were expected to fall since last quarter in part due to seasonal influences, the 2Q 2011 TransUnion data released today shows a moderate deceleration on a year-over-year basis since the third quarter of 2010.”
The auto delinquency rate showed just over a 16-percent drop from the second quarter of 2010, dropping from .53 percent to today’s .44 percent.
"Historically, first and second quarter auto delinquencies tend to be lower than those experienced in the second half of the year, all other things remaining equal," said Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services business unit.
"However, over the last seven quarters — on a year over year basis — we have seen delinquencies trend downward as consumers continue to pay down debt. With auto sales improving, more auto loans are opened by consumers placing downward pressure on auto delinquency rates. A consumer's ability to repay is also helped by the recent low interest rates for new and used car loans, making purchase decisions and monthly payments more affordable,” he continued.
Also of note, data showed 43 states have experienced declines in their auto delinquency rates from 1Q and 2Q of this year. Breaking it down further, 60 percent of metropolitan statistical areas saw declines in their delinquency rates last quarter.
The states with the highest auto delinquency rates all fall in the South, with Mississippi coming in on top with .85 percent and Louisiana next, with .83 percent. Tennessee (.70 percent) and Oklahoma (.65 percent) rounded out the list.
Interestingly, the states with the biggest year-over-year increases include Alaska and Wyoming, both rising 24.24 percent from .33 percent in 2Q of 2010 to .41 percent in the same period of this year. Missouri also saw a significant increase, rising 12.20 percent from 2010 2Q’s .41 percent to .46 percent this year.
On the other hand, moving Northward and Westward, some of these states find themselves with the lowest auto delinquency rates on file. Idaho came in at .19 percent, with Vermont (.23 percent), Montana (.24 percent) and Connecticut (.24 percent) following closely behind.
Idaho took the top spot in year-over-year declines, highlighting a 71.21-percent decrease from 2Q’s .66 percent to .19 percent in the same period of this year. Utah experienced a 52.11-percent decrease from .71 percent in the second quarter of 2010 to .34 this year. Hawaii followed closely behind with a 47.37 percent decrease, coming in at .40 percent in 2Q of 2011, compared to .76 percent last year.
"Today, national auto delinquency rates are at historic lows, at half the levels found in credit card nonpayment rates and over ten times lower than seen in the mortgage sector," Turek further stressed.
"Lenders that have money to lend are attracted to auto finance as it is a relatively low risk short-term asset and auto loan delinquencies are expected to remain at historically low levels through the end of the year. Consumers should benefit in the form of competitive offers, making purchase decisions easier and more affordable,” he added.
Moving on to highlight more in-depth auto debt statistics, interestingly, the District of Columbia topped of the list of highest bank auto debt per borrower, at $15,128, with Hawaii following closely behind at $14,658. Wyoming ($14,373) and Maryland ($14,057) concluded the list.
The states with the highest year-over-year increases included Wisconsin out on top, with a 7.36-percent rise from $11,477 in the second quarter of 2010 to $12,321 this year. Montana was next with a 7.34-percent climb from 2Q 2010, rising from $12,705 to $13,638 in the same period of this year. Minnesota rounded off the top three with a 4.29-percent increase from $11,662 in the second quarter of 2010 to $12,162 this year.
Moving on to highlight parts of the country that saw slightly more encouraging numbers, the states that saw the lowest auto debt per borrower were Nebraska ($11,106), Ohio ($11,313), Idaho ($11,382) and Missouri ($11,464), in respective order.
Lastly, topping off the list of states that saw the highest year-over-year declines was Nevada, with a 5.44-percent decrease from the second quarter of 2010, dropping from $11,959 to $11,382 during the same period of this year. Idaho followed with a 4.82-percent decrease, dropping from $11,958 to $11,382 this year, and Louisiana saw a 4.20-percent decrease, falling from $14,261 to $13,662.
TransUnion's forecast is based on various economic assumptions, such as unemployment rates, consumer sentiment, disposable income and interest rates.
“The forecast changes as the economy deviates from a conservative economic forecast or if there are unanticipated shocks to the economy affecting recovery,” noted company officials.