TransUnion: Less Demand, Fewer Auto Loans Lead to Higher Delinquencies
CHICAGO — In its latest auto lending analysis, TransUnion.com discovered that the national 60-day delinquency rate climbed between the second and third quarters from 0.73 percent to 0.81 percent.
Meanwhile, the year-over-year delinquency rate grew by 1.25 percent in the third quarter.
Reflecting on the latest statistics, Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services group, explained, "The rise in third-quarter 60-day auto delinquency rate is more indicative of a cyclical pattern since the current automotive lending environment has remained consistent in its approach over the last 12 months."
Reviewing trends by state, TransUnion found that auto loan delinquency was highest in Mississippi and California at 1.53 percent and 1.33 percent, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, the lowest delinquency rates could be found in Washington, D.C., at 0.26 percent, North Dakota at 0.35 percent and South Dakota at 0.37 percent.
Continuing on, officials indicated that the largest improvements in delinquency over the prior quarter were in South Dakota at a 38.33-percent decrease from 0.60 percent and Washington, D.C., which displayed a 38.10-percent drop from 0.42 percent.
The average national auto debt level continued to decline slightly in the third quarter from $12,560 to $12,542. Similarly, the year-over-year auto debt level fell by 2.5 percent, TransUnion discovered.
The state with the highest auto debt burden was Nevada at $14,721 per auto borrower, followed by Texas at $14,425.
Meanwhile, the lowest average auto debt could be found in Nebraska at $10,770.
Apparently, the steepest annual increases in median auto debt, as a percentage, were in Michigan, up 3 percent; Alaska, up 2.17 percent; and Vermont, up 2.03 percent.
On the other side of the coin, Washington, D.C., showed the most significant drop in average auto debt, down 3.78 percent, followed by Wyoming, which was down 3.15 percent.
"On a state-level basis, seven states experienced a drop in their quarter-to-quarter delinquency rates, while 22 showed a drop on a year-over-year basis," Turek said. "The drop in delinquency is an indicator that some states could emerge from the recession sooner than others.
"As in recent quarters, both the availability of funding in the market, consumer demand for auto financing and together lending standards have contributed to a significant decrease in the number of auto loans in the market, resulting in upward pressure on delinquency rates," he continued. "As well, the drop in average auto loan debt, although marginal at the national level, reflects the maturation of existing loans and the corresponding decreases in new auto loan originations in the third quarter."
Looking ahead, his company is predicting that the national 60-day delinquency rate will rise to almost 0.9 percent by the end of the year, which would be a 7.5-percent increase over last year.
"Although the effects of the government's various stimulus programs seem popular and the auto industry has reported an increase in sales during the quarter, the weak labor market should continue to negatively impact the consumer into 2010," Turek explained.
"As the new loans from the ‘clunkers' program show up on credit files, there is a good possibility average auto debt will increase. Since lenders had tightened their lending criteria prior to the ‘clunkers' program it also is expected the new loans will experience lower delinquencies," he concluded.
Credit Overview from TransUnion.com:
—Mortgage loan delinquency (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) increased for the 11th straight quarter, hitting an all-time national average high of 6.25 percent for the third quarter of 2009. This statistic is traditionally seen as a precursor to foreclosure and increased 7.57 percent from the previous quarter's 5.81 percent average. While still increasing, this quarter marks the third consecutive period the delinquency rate increase has decelerated. Year-over-year, mortgage borrower delinquency is up approximately 58 percent (from 3.96 percent).
The average national mortgage debt per borrower dropped (0.36 percent) to $193,121 from the previous quarter's $193,811. On a year-over-year basis, the third quarter 2009 average represents a 0.43 percent increase over the third quarter 2008 average mortgage debt per borrower level of $192,287.
—Average credit card borrower debt (defined as the aggregate balance on all bank-issued credit cards for an individual bankcard borrower) drifted downward nationally 1.87 percent to $5,612 from the previous quarter's $5,719, and down 1.71 percent compared to the third quarter of 2008 ($5,710).
The national credit card delinquency rate (the ratio of bankcard borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more of their credit cards) dropped to 1.10 percent in the third quarter of 2009, down 5.98 percent over the previous quarter. Year over year, credit card delinquencies remained essentially flat from 1.09 percent in the third quarter of 2008.