TransUnion: Mortgage-Only Delinquent Consumers Are Less Risky
CHICAGO — As the mortgage meltdown continues to play out throughout the country, a new study by TransUnion revealed some potentially good news for auto lenders.
The company found that consumers who were only delinquent on their mortgages tend to be a safer credit bet than those who default on more than one account.
More specifically, TransUnion stressed, "A new TransUnion study revealed that consumers who only defaulted on their mortgage during the economic recession were far better risks than those consumers who went delinquent on multiple credit accounts, for example, credit cards and auto loans. This was evident across all credit scoring ranges."
Will more traditional auto lenders be willing to cater to these customers?
TransUnion discovered that the 60-plus day delinquency levels on a new auto loan came in at:
—5.8 percent for consumers that are mortgage-only delinquent.
—13.1 percent for consumers who have multiple delinquencies.
As for a new credit card, TransUnion found the 60-plus delinquency levels at:
—11.4 percent for mortgage-only defaulters.
—27.1 percent for consumers with multiple delinquencies.
While this has the potential of being good news for auto lenders and credit-challenged customers, TransUnion also debunked the "excess liquidity theory" for those who are delinquent on mortgages.
In fact, TransUnion stressed that the study did not find any strong evidence supporting the idea of excess liquidity, which suggests that consumers who stopped paying their mortgage loans during the recent recession had an increased cash flow in the short term.
Interestingly, consumers in the foreclosure process performed similarly, if not better, on certain accounts when they opened them further in the foreclosure process, officials indicated.
"There appears to be a pocket of opportunity among mortgage-only defaults that is not the result of excess liquidity, but rather the unique circumstances of the recent recession," explained Steve Chaouki, group vice president of TransUnion's financial services business unit.
"This new market segment that the recession created is an important one for lenders to understand. They have the potential, today, to be stronger and more reliable to customers," he added.
Additional evidence suggesting the "excess liquidity theory" was not in effect during the recession was witnessed when comparing consumers who were 120 days past due on their mortgages but opened new auto loans at various times after their delinquency, according to the company.
The percentage of consumers delinquent on these auto loans decreased as more time passed, the company noted.
60-plus day delinquency levels:
—Opened within six months — 10.4 percent delinquent.
—Opened within seven to 11 months — 9.7 percent delinquent.
—Opened 12 or more months later — 9.3 percent delinquent.
"This recession was unique in that certain consumers who defaulted on mortgages would otherwise be good credit risks. It appears their actions were driven more by difficult economic circumstances than by any inherent inability to manage debt," said Ezra Becker, vice president of research and consulting in TransUnion's financial services business unit.
"Also, these results are well-aligned with our past research into the reversal of the payment hierarchy dynamic. Bottom line — consumers prioritize their payments based on product preference when they find themselves constrained financially. In that sense, loan defaults have always been strategic," Becker added.
A noteworthy exception was seen in credit cards, where a slight increase in delinquencies occurred when consumers delayed the opening of the new trade line. The delinquency changes were minimal between accounts opened seven to 11 months later (18.5 percent) and 12 or more months later (18.7 percent), TransUnion discovered.
"While we do not discount these results, we do not consider them conclusive given the remainder of the findings," said Chaouki.
"This study is critical in that it sheds more light on consumer behavior in a challenging economy," said Becker. "The analysis of consumer preferences between products and how they manage and prioritize them is important information lenders need to leverage to effectively manage their customer relationships. This study affords lenders greater insight into consumer performance, hopefully leading to a more mutually profitable, long-term relationship between lender and borrower."