TransUnion: Quarterly Auto Loan Delinquency Rates Fall Significantly
CHICAGO — Mirroring positive trends from the latest S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, officials from TransUnion on Tuesday noted a sharp decline in the national 60-day auto delinquency rate.
The TransUnion rate — which calculates the ratio of vehicle loan borrowers 60 or more days past due — fell by 18.52 percent between the fourth quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2010. Officials indicated it now stands at 0.66 percent.
Furthermore, TransUnion's quarterly analysis of trends in the industry also revealed a significant drop in the year-over-year delinquency rate at the national level. That rate declined by 20.48 percent in the first quarter.
Delving deeper into the quarterly statistics, the company found that auto loan delinquency was highest in Louisiana and Alabama at 1.20 percent and 1.13 percent, respectively. Conversely the states with the lowest loan delinquency rates were Alaska (0.33 percent), North Dakota (0.33 percent) and Montana (0.37 percent).
The locations that posted the largest improvements in delinquency from the previous quarter included the District of Columbia, which had a 42.3-percent decrease from 1.18 percent, according to TransUnion. Also making positive strides was Utah, moving down by 37.8 percent to 0.61 percent.
Officials determined loan delinquency rates rose in only four states since the fourth quarter of last year. That group included Alaska (up 13.8 percent), South Dakota (a rise of 9.8 percent), Vermont (9.4 percent higher), and North Dakota (up 3.12 percent).
Meanwhile, TransUnion said average vehicle debt nationally fell slightly quarter over quarter. The amount dipped from $12,568 to $12,501. Officials mentioned when looking year-over-year, auto debt fell by 0.75 percent in the first quarter.
Areas that held the largest average vehicle debt burden was topped by the District of Columbia at $14,911, followed by Wyoming at $14,579. TransUnion pointed out that lowest average was in Nebraska at $10,781.
According to the latest analysis, areas with the steepest quarterly increases in average auto debt as a percentage were North Dakota (a rise of 2.37 percent), the District of Columbia (up 2.10 percent) and Wyoming (1.76 percent higher). Officials contend Alaska experienced the sharpest drop in average auto debt (down 3.90 percent), followed by Tennessee (a decline of 3.20 percent).
On a year-over-year basis, TransUnion stated national bank auto originations increased by 5.4 percent. The company added that North Dakota exhibited the greatest rise with an increase of approximately 32 percent from the first quarter of 2009.
On a regional basis, only eight states showed a drop in year-over-year originations, according to TransUnion.
"The national trend we are now seeing points to a clear improvement in payment behavior," explained Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion's financial services group.
"As we noted last quarter, part of the reason for the turnaround in delinquency rates is the influx of new, lower-risk loans," Turek continued. "Furthermore, this downward trend was energized by first quarter improvements in economic factors such as consumer confidence and savings rates, which demonstrated consumer willingness to focus on debt obligations.
"On a state-level basis, 46 states experienced a drop in their quarter-to-quarter delinquency rates, while only three states showed an increase on a year-over-year basis," he added.
Turek's industry forecast included an outlook for the current trend to continue as 2010 unfolds.
"TransUnion expects next quarter's national 60-day auto delinquency rate to continue to move downward due in part to seasonal factors, but also because of general improvement in certain aspects of the economy," Turek insisted.
"Given a more positive outlook in per capita disposable income and projected new vehicle sales, our forecasting models point to a national 60-day auto delinquency rate in the range of 0.68 percent by year-end, factoring in the strong seasonal uptick in delinquency typical in the fourth quarter," he went on to say.
Earlier this month, Standard & Poor's and Experian found defaulting balances on vehicle loans slid down to 1.9 percent, a rate based on their analysis of data through April of this year. More details from SubPrime Auto Finance News can be found here.
Analysis of Other Credit Market Segments
TransUnion officials reported that a positive turn regarding mortgage loans finally came in the first quarter. Their recent analysis of trends in the mortgage industry found that national mortgage loan delinquency rate — the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due — decreased in the first quarter of this year. They said it had steadily increased for 12 consecutive quarters.
The company indicated the delinquency rate dropped to 6.77 percent, a level slightly lower than in the fourth quarter of last year. This statistic, which officials believe is traditionally seen as a precursor to foreclosure, reflects a decrease of 1.74 percent from the previous quarter's 6.89-percent average.
When looking year-over-year, TransUnion conceded that mortgage borrower delinquency is still up approximately 30 percent from 5.22 percent.
Officials mentioned the average national mortgage debt per borrower decreased by 0.47 percent in the most recent quarter. The figured dipped to $192,774 from the previous quarter's average of $193,690.
On a year-over-year basis, TransUnion calculated the 2010 first quarter average represents a 1.39-percent decrease over the average from the first quarter of last year, which was $195,500.
Turning to TransUnion's national credit card delinquency rate, officials shared as the ratio of bankcard borrowers 90 days or more delinquent on one or more credit cards decreased to 1.11 percent in the first quarter of 2010. They said that statistic is down 8.3 percent over the previous quarter. Meanwhile, they added that based on year-over-year analysis, credit card delinquencies fell by 15.91 percent.
TransUnion explained that it figures the average credit card borrower debt as the aggregate balance on all bank-issued credit cards for an individual bankcard borrower. That average drifted downward for the fourth consecutive quarter nationally. This time, it edged lower by 4.95 percent to $5,165 from the previous quarter's mark of $5,434. It's also down 10.57 percent compared to the first quarter of 2009 when the average credit card debt total stood at $5,776.
Officials reiterated that their quarterly report is compiled from information connected with approximately 27 million anonymous, randomly sampled, individual credit files. They believe that sampling represents about 10 percent of credit-active U.S. consumers and provides a real-life perspective on how they are managing their credit health.