CHICAGO -

TransUnion sees auto-finance companies having less appetite for risk in the coming year.

The auto component of TransUnion 2021 consumer credit forecast released on Thursday projected that origination activity in the first and second quarters of next year is expected to generate 6.8 million and 7.4 million new accounts, respectively.

Analysts think a greater share of contracts will shift to the prime and above risk tiers.

TransUnion explained this origination mix shift is a reflection of changing consumer demand and adjustments to finance-company strategies due to the pandemic.

As subprime originations decline, analysts added that the total share of non-prime balances is expected to gradually decrease throughout the year.

“New auto originations will shift toward lower risk consumers as auto lenders continue to grapple with the aftermath of the pandemic,” said Satyan Merchant, senior vice president and TransUnion’s auto line of business leader.

“However, the forecasted origination activity represents a fairly healthy rebound for the industry given the challenges seen in 2020,” Merchant continued in a news release. “As long as supply issues do not persist, auto-loan originators should expect a steady 2021.”

Merchant noted that current portfolio performance should also stabilize as accommodations continue to decline. While a tool finance companies leverage significantly at the beginning of the pandemic, TransUnion sees just 3.8% of contracts currently sitting in some kind of modification.

“While consumers with a mortgage forbearance may impact auto loan delinquencies, we are anticipating this to be relatively small,” Merchant said.

“Over the years our research has shown that, especially in a time of need, many consumers prioritize auto payments more so than other credit products,” he continued.

“And now, during the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s clear that many Americans will continue to value having access to a vehicle, as it is the lifeblood of many consumers,” Merchant went on to say.

Editor’s note: More insights from TransUnion about its forecast are scheduled to be included in the first print edition of SubPrime Auto Finance News of 2021. To subscribe, go to www.autoremarketing.com/subscribe.