CHICAGO — In its quarterly analysis, TransUnion discovered that the 60-day national auto loan delinquency rate climbed 9.4 percent from the second to third quarter, largely due to seasonal shifts.

The delinquency rate came in at 0.58 percent, which on the positive side, is down 28.4 percent year-over-year.

"Although non-payment behavior ticked up by almost 10 percent in the third quarter, the increase is attributed to expected seasonal factors and not an underlying change in how customers are repaying their debt obligations," explained Peter Turek, automotive vice president for TransUnion's financial services group.

And the company is predicting a continued decline of 3.2 percent throughout 2011. TransUnion is forecasting a 0.62 percent delinquency rate once all 2010 data is in and predicts a 0.60 percent rate for 2011.

"TransUnion expects national auto loan delinquency rates in 2011 to continue to be well below the peak levels experienced during the heart of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2008. In fact, the projected delinquency rate would be more than 30 percent below that level," officials indicated.

Newer, lower-risk loans are still being struck, which is helping to reduce overall delinquency rates, according to the company. However, officials said consumers "are still cautious in the short-term given the employment situation, focusing their attention on savings and lower consumption of discretionary goods."

Turek pointed out, "This trend toward fiscal responsibility is reflected in year-over-year results, as auto delinquency rates now have dropped 28.4 percent since the third quarter 2009, the largest decline since the summer of 2001. On a state-level basis, 12 states experienced a drop in their quarter-to-quarter delinquency rates, while only two states showed an increase on a year-over-year basis."

TransUnion expects that while seasonal patterns will continue to rise to the surface, overall, delinquencies are likely to stabilize in 2011.

"Forty-five states and the District of Columbia are expected to experience declines in auto delinquency next year, led by Montana, Missouri and Indiana. Though five states are expected to see higher auto loan delinquencies next year, the increases should be relatively small," Experian's team highlighted.

Quarterly Trends

Breaking down the quarterly results, TransUnion found that the auto loan delinquency rate was highest in Mississippi and Louisiana at 1.12 percent and 1.10 percent, respectively.

Meanwhile, the lowest delinquency rates were in Wyoming at 0.23 percent, North Dakota at 0.23 percent and Pennsylvania at 0.32 percent.

Continuing on, the largest improvements could be found in Rhode Island, down 33.8 percent from 0.74 percent, and Wyoming, down 30.3 percent from 0.33 percent.

The auto loan delinquency rate climbed for all but 15 states since the second quarter, TransUnion pointed out. The District of Columbia was at 0.95 percent, a 106.5-percent jump; while Vermont came in at 0.52 percent, up 52.9 percent; and Arizona reached 0.70 percent, up 37.2 percent.

"Average auto debt nationally fell slightly quarter-over-quarter from $12,643 to $12,500. Year-over-year, auto debt remained essentially flat in the third quarter," according to officials.

Overall, the District of Columbia showed the highest average auto debt burden at $15,216, followed by Wyoming at $14,374.

At the other end of the spectrum, the state with the lowest average auto debt was Ohio at $11,131.

Reviewing regions, TransUnion said the steepest quarterly increases in debt were in Wisconsin, up 2.9 percent; Mississippi, up 2.4 percent; and New Jersey, up 1.9 percent.

On the other hand, Idaho showed the sharpest drop, down 5.5 percent, followed by Texas, down 3.6 percent.

On a year-over-year basis, national bank auto originations grew by 5 percent, with North Dakota leading the way at a 29.2-percent increase since the third quarter of 2009.

In a regional analysis, seven states showed a drop in year-over-year originations.