Webb: Recession to Likely End by Q3
LAS VEGAS — Tom Webb had some positive news to share at the National Alliance of Buy-Here, Pay-Here Dealers conference Tuesday.
Manheim's chief economist said he is seeing some improvement in the near future in the labor sector, which coupled with some positive signs in the credit markets, means there could soon be end to the drawn-out recession.
However, he tempered his view by saying that he is pessimistic that the recovery will have significant strength.
In the BHPH arena, Webb said dealers may want to start keeping an eye on rental units as they come back to auction. With rental companies relying more and more on risk units, they will be holding onto them longer. These companies, too, have taken a hit in the recession as consumers spend less money on leisure activities, which also leads rental agencies to retain vehicles longer, he noted.
So what does this mean for dealers? These units will come into the lanes with more mileage and at likely a cheaper cost than in years past. For instance, he predicts many of these units will have 40,000 to 50,000 miles on their odometers.
"These are going to come back into auction lanes at pretty attractive pricing," Webb pointed out.
Another industry trend Webb discussed was the fact that repossessed vehicles in the lanes will likely be down in the coming months. Playing a role in this is the fact that companies have been pulling back in their auto financing. Generally, consumers tend to go into default within 12 to 24 months, with 18 months being the average, Webb explained.
With fewer auto loans being contracted, those already on the books have tended to season past this window.
"Repos were up quite a bit last year," he said. "But repos sold at auction are going to decline. There has been no paper written."