S&P and Experian: Auto Defaults Halt Rise; Overall Credit Reading in ‘Good Shape’
NEW YORK — Analysts from S&P Dow Jones Indices and
Experian found that the streak of three consecutive months where auto loan
defaults inched higher stopped in October by a slim margin.
According to data associated with the newest the
S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices, the auto loan reading settled
at 1.14 percent in October, marginally down from 1.15 percent posted in the
previous month.
The auto loan default rate established a new record low back
in June when it came in at 1.00 percent, but analysts have noticed that measure
has crept up almost steadily since.
Turning back to the newest information, S&P and Experian
found that the national composite rate — a comprehensive measure of changes in
consumer credit defaults — showed stability as October's reading was 1.38
percent, the same as September.
As far as other credit sectors, analysts determined the
first mortgage default rate was 1.30 percent in October, marginally up from
1.28 percent posted during the previous month.
The second mortgage rate ticked up to 0.72 percent, slightly
up from September rate at 0.69 percent.
Meanwhile, the bank card rate dipped to 2.97 percent in
October; down from 3.14 percent in September.
"Consumer financial well-being is in a good shape," said David
Blitzer, managing director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Dow
Jones Indices.
"The indices remain at pre-financial crisis levels and are
stable," Blitzer continued. "The national composite remained flat since September
at 1.38 percent. The first and second mortgages were a few basis points up in
October as they posted at 1.30 percent and 0.72 percent.
"Auto loan default rate was 1.14 percent, one basis point
lower than in September. Bank card default rate reached a new low of 2.97
percent for the first time in the history of the index it was below 3 percent,"
he went on to say.
"The composite, first mortgage and bank card default rates
remain below their respective levels a year ago," Blitzer said.
Looking at the five largest cities analysts track for this
month report, three metropolitan areas saw the default rates decrease in
October. That group included:
—Chicago: 1.66 percent, down from 1.77 percent in September
—Los Angeles: 1.25 percent, down from 1.38 percent in September
—New York: 1.27 percent, down from 1.38 percent in September.
"Los Angeles posted a recent low of 1.25 percent. Miami
remained flat. Dallas posted a default rate increase. All cities except Miami
posted rates below 2 percent," Blitzer said.
"Miami has a highest rate among the five cities we cover
(2.11 percent) and Los Angeles is the lowest (1.25 percent). Four cities —
Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami and New York — remain below default rates they
posted a year ago in October 2012," he went on to say.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, Blitzer
reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published
monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer
balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and
second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from
Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual
consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks
and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding
loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.
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