Gauging auto-finance & consumer impact after Fed’s 10th straight interest rate rise
From buying cars to happy hour drinks, inflation, interest rates and a turbulent economy are continuing to leave negative ramifications.
And the Federal Reserve just pushed interest rates up another 25 basis points on Wednesday.
“All bets are off if the U.S. tips into recession,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said to close his blog post after the Fed took the 10th opportunity in a row to move the target range for the federal funds rate higher, as it now sits at 5% to 5.25%.
Smoke elaborated about what the decision could mean for dealerships and finance companies going into summer. And on Thursday, BrightPlan announced the results of its third annual Wellness Barometer Survey on the state of workforce well-being.
Among the survey’s key findings is that an overwhelming 92% of employees are stressed about their finances. And leaders are by no means immune — 76% of the C-suite and HR leaders report financial stress.
BrightPlan reported this high level of stress is impacting employees’ overall well-being and productivity, potentially costing U.S. employers nearly $200 billion annually.
A majority of those dealing with financial stress say it has worsened their mental and physical health (72% and 60%, respectively), and 64% say it’s impacted their social well-being (i.e., their relationships with friends and family).
BrightPlan said 72% of respondents have passed up opportunities to spend time with family, friends, and co-workers because they couldn’t afford to, skipping important events like weddings and birthdays or turning down invitations to get drinks or food.
Uncertain economic conditions are a top source of financial stress, with both employees and leaders concerned about:
—High inflation (96%)
—A potential recession (93%)
—Rising interest rates (90%)
—Market volatility (89%)
“The Fed’s monetary policy actions are guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people,” Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said in his prepared comments following Wednesday’s rate increase announcement.
“My colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. We are highly attentive to the risks that high inflation poses to both sides of our mandate, and we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2 percent objective,” Powell continued. “We are seeing the effects of our policy tightening on demand in the most interest rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing and investment. It will take time, however, for the full effects of monetary restraint to be realized, especially on inflation.
“In addition, the economy is likely to face further headwinds from tighter credit conditions,” he went on to say. “Credit conditions had already been tightening over the past year or so in response to our policy actions and a softer economic outlook. But the strains that emerged in the banking sector in early March appear to be resulting in even tighter credit conditions for households and businesses. In turn, these tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain.”
More about auto-finance impact
In his blog post, Smoke reported that the average rate for used-vehicle financing booked in March was 14%, softening slightly in April to 13.5%.
“The rate increases we have seen have limited who can buy vehicles,” Smoke said. “We have seen more evidence of pressure on demand from declining sales in the used market, where rates are more reflective of financial market conditions, sales have lost momentum this spring, and are now down compared to last year. And last year was not a good year.
“We’ve also seen consumers with lower income and lower credit quality have materially dropped out of the new-vehicle market because of the combination of higher rates, tighter credit and high vehicle prices,” he continued.
Smoke added these perspectives about the potential for recession and how federal lawmakers might play a role.
“The next few weeks and months will be pivotal to a recession materializing later in the year. The Fed meets in each of the next two months. Between now and those summer meetings, the U.S. will run out of money without a change in the debt ceiling. The politics around that decision make it very unlikely that we will see any fiscal action to help an ailing economy,” Smoke said.
“This summer may be brutal for its impact on consumer confidence and credit conditions, and that does not bode well for retail vehicle demand. Surprisingly, the new market has been stronger than expected so far this year and appears to be gaining momentum. April sales surprised on the upside. However, do not interpret the performance so far as an indication that the new-vehicle market is immune from higher rates and a slowing economy,” Smoke went on to say.
Additional insight about weary working consumers
BrightPlan said its survey points to an overall poor state of financial well-being and low financial preparedness.
Most respondents (85%) have debt, and 48% have more debt than is manageable. More than a third have no emergency savings or only enough for up to 2 months, and 52% are only setting aside less than 10% of their income each year for retirement, or nothing at all.
In addition to impacting employees’ health, BrightPlan discovered financial stress is negatively affecting people’s engagement (50%) and productivity (48%) at work. Respondents say, on average, they lose over one day of work per week due to financial stress, which potentially costs U.S. employers nearly $200 billion annually.
Notably, BrightPlan noted the C-suite and HR leaders are significantly more likely than employees to say financial stress has worsened their productivity at work, with C-suite reporting an average loss of 16.8 hours per week and HR leaders reporting 12.4 hours per week.
“The impact of financial stress on people’s mental and physical health is well-established, but few studies have examined how this can affect our relationships and our social health,” BrightPlan founder and CEO Marthin De Beer said in a news release.
“Employers need to recognize that when workers are stressed about their finances, this carries over into all aspects of their well-being, which ultimately affects their performance and engagement at work,” De Beer added.