It’s now the last week of February, and you might be struggling to hit your financing and retailing targets for the month.

Data and assessments from sources such as Cox Automotive, the IRS and the University of Michigan could explain why this month has been challenging.

Scott Vanner is a senior analyst of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive.

“So far, February hasn’t been as busy as we were expecting, even with tax season starting,” Vanner said in a video presentation posted Friday. “The spring selling season is critical to the used-car business. And while February may have started a little slow, we are optimistic that the spring season will pick up in the months ahead. However, between weather, interest rates, changing sentiment and uncertainty around policy that will eventually impact the automotive industry, there are still plenty of variables to keep an eye out for.”

One variable is tax refunds. According to the IRS database, there have been 13,657,000 refunds given through Feb. 14. That’s down 34.6% year-over-year.

And the average refund has been $2,169, which is off by 32.4% year-over-year, according to the IRS.

However, there might be a caveat.

“Historically, filing season numbers even out as more tax returns come in,” the IRS said on its website. “The IRS expects the tax return filing numbers will level out in future weeks as the April filing deadline approaches.

“Under the PATH Act, the IRS cannot issue refunds for tax returns claiming the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) or the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) before mid-February,” the agency added.

Even if refunds rebound, what consumers want to do with that money might not be using it in the dealership showroom to take delivery of a vehicle.

Comerica Bank recapped that the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 64.7 in the final reading for February from 67.8 in the preliminary release and was the weakest since November 2023.

The decrease was unanimous across groups by age, income and wealth. All five components of the sentiment index deteriorated this month, led by a 19% plunge in buying conditions for durables, due in part to fears that tariff-induced price increases are imminent, said economist Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers.

Hsu explained expectations for personal finances and the short-run economic outlook both declined almost 10% in February, while the long-run economic outlook fell about 6% to its lowest reading since November 2023.

“Consumers’ expectations for the path of inflation worsened considerably this month; they are clearly bracing for a resurgence in inflation,” Hsu said in a news release. “A spike in inflation expectations is not necessarily a cause for concern, but if these views persist, it could become problematic for policymakers. Consumers broadly anticipate that tariff hikes will lead to higher inflation, but policy uncertainty means that their views are subject to change.”

Comerica Bank chief economist Bill Adams senior economist Waran Bhahirethan echoed the consumer sentiment assessment, adding that “Concerns about tariffs and layoffs of Federal employees and contractors likely weighed on consumer confidence, pushing the index down for a third consecutive month.”