Auto defaults close 2021 by rising for 6 straight months
Perhaps executives and managers associated with auto collections, repossessions and recoveries are sending each other messages with a GIF attached featuring the character Michael Scott from the popular TV show, “The Office,” with him yelling, “It’s happening!”
According to December data released on Tuesday by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian, auto defaults closed 2021 with six consecutive months of increases.
Before anyone reaches an excitement level that Michael Scott displayed at Dunder Mifflin, the total rise in auto defaults as part of the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices has been just 19 basis points during that stretch, which began with the lowest reading ever recorded at 0.30% in June.
Since that point, the largest month-over-month increase came from October to November (6 basis points). The uptick from November to December was 5 basis points to leave the latest reading 0.49%.
It’s also the highest reading since last February, which was 0.51%, and the midst of the six-month drop that resulted in that all-time low landing in June.
And if you’re wondering like Jim Halpert might if he was in collections and repossessions instead of paper sales, the last auto default reading before the pandemic was declared stood at 0.89% in February 2020.
TV-show references aside, auto defaults aren’t the only metric on the rise.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian reported that their composite rate — which represents a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults —roses 3 basis points to 0.40%. That’s the great rise in the composite rate since last February when it jumped 5 basis points to 0.53%.
The pandemic-era high point for the composite rate is 0.99%, which came in March 2020.
Elsewhere in the December data, analysts said the bank card default rate increased 1 basis point to 1.95%, while the first mortgage default rate ticked 2 basis points higher to 0.28%.
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian went on to mention that three of the five major metropolitan areas posted higher default rates in December compared to previous month.
Miami generated the largest increase, jumping 24 basis points to 0.97%. New York moved 3 basis points higher to 0.33%, Los Angeles edged up 2 basis points to 0.36%.
While Dallas remained unchanged at 0.49%, analysts said Chicago ticked 1 basis point lower to 0.44%.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts noted the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.