Bankruptcy Filings Fall 14 Percent for First Half of 2012, but Unemployment Rate Stays at 8.2 Percent
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ALEXANDRIA, Va., and DALLAS — As the newest jobs report arrived
today, new bankruptcy filings are trending toward levels not seen since before
the recession started in 2008, according to the latest analysis from the
American Bankruptcy Institute.
In fact, total bankruptcy filings during the first six
months of 2012 came in 14 percent lower than the same period a year ago. Data
provided by Epiq Systems showed there were 632,130 filings nationwide between
Jan. 1 and June 30, down from the first six months of last year when there were
731,500 total filings
Analysts indicated the 601,184 total noncommercial filings
for the first half of 2012 represented a 13-percent drop from the noncommercial
filing total of 691,902 for the first half of last year.
ABI noted total commercial filings during the first six
months of the year were 30,946, representing a 22-percent decrease from the
39,598 filings during the same timeframe a year ago.
Analysts also mentioned Chapter 11 filings also fell during
the first half of 2012 as the 5,313 filings represented a 12-percent decrease
from the 6,070 Chapter 11 filings during the first six months of 2011.
"We are on pace for perhaps the lowest total new
bankruptcies since before the financial crisis in 2008," said ABI executive director
Samuel Gerdano.
"With sustained low interest rates and weak consumer
spending, we expect bankruptcies to stay at relatively low levels through the
end of 2012," Gerdano projected.
In other new data, ABI determined the 99,057 total
bankruptcy filings for the month of June represented an 18-percent decrease
compared to 120,698 filings during the same month last year.
The 94,437 total noncommercial filings for June represented
a 17-percent drop from last June's noncommercial filing total of 114,162.
Total commercial filings for last month settled at 4,620,
representing a 29-percent decrease from the 6,536 filings during the same
period a year ago.
Analysts added Chapter 11 filings registered a 28-percent
drop as the 1,000 Chapter 11 filings in June of last year fell to 718 last
month.
ABI calculated the average nationwide per capita
bankruptcy-filing rate for the first six calendar months of 2012 decreased to
4.08 (total filings per 1,000 per population) from the 4.13 rate for the first
five months of the year, and the average total filings per day in June was
3,302, an 18-percent decrease from the 4,023 total daily filings in June of
last year.
Looking at the numbers geographically, states with the
highest per capita filing rate (total filings per 1,000 population) through the
first six months of 2012 were:
1. Nevada (7.06)
2. Tennessee (6.99)
3. Georgia (6.49)
4. Utah (6.12)
5. Alabama (5.88)
ABI reiterated that it partnered with Epiq Systems in order
to provide the most current bankruptcy filing data for analysts, researchers
and members of the news media. Epiq Systems is a leading provider of managed
technology for the global legal profession.
Employment Report Analysis
As the latest bankruptcy data pointed toward an upbeat
trend, Comerica Bank shared a cautionary tone when it reviewed the latest unemployment
data.
Comerica said the official Bureau of Labor Statistics count
of payroll jobs created in June was a "disappointing" as the U.S. economy added
80,000 jobs and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent.
"Today's jobs data confirms that the slowdown in hiring,
first visible in March, has extended into the summer," stated Comerica chief
economist Robert Dye, adding that there are several factors to blame for the
slowdown.
The factors Dye mentioned are:
—favorable weather early in the year which pulled economic
activity forward
—high gasoline prices earlier in the year
—a weaker global macroeconomic environment with Europe in crisis and Asia
cooler
—the approaching Fiscal Cliff
—a structural change in labor market dynamics
"It is impossible to say definitively which factor or
factors are holding down job growth, but it is fair to say that it looks like a
little bit of everything," Dye explained.
"The danger that the U.S. economy now faces is a loss of
momentum in the parts of the economy that have been noticeably improving,
namely, energy, manufacturing, residential real estate, and automotive," he
continued. "While the likelihood of a collapse in demand for these sectors now
looks small, the likelihood of ongoing strong growth also looks smaller."
Comerica insisted that new-vehicle sales remain well above
their recession lows, but "really have not improved since the end of 2011."
Dye mentioned that June new-model sales increased to a 14.1
million unit annual rate, up from May's 13.7 million unit rate, but remain just
below this January's 14.2 million unit rate.
"On the plus side for auto sales is ample pent-up demand,
low interest rates, deleveraged households and falling gasoline prices," Dye
highlighted.
Dye wrapped up his latest commentary by elaborating on what
employment trends could be and what federal officials might do to stimulate growth.
"So far, lack of hiring has not evolved into broad-based
firing, but the longer we have weak hiring the more likely we see more firing.
Given the headwinds from Europe and Asia, and the approaching Fiscal Cliff,
plus the loss of momentum within the U.S. economy, it looks like the rest of
this year will feel like more of the same — a sluggish march toward the Fiscal
Cliff," Dye cautioned.
"We may yet see more aggressive monetary policy by the
Federal Reserve this year, in the form of quantitative easing, but that is by
no means a sure thing," he continued. "The Fed is already engaged in
extraordinary monetary policy with the pledge to keep the fed funds rate near
zero through at least the end of 2014, and with the extension of Operation
Twist through the remainder of this year.
"Also, the closer we get to Election Day the more the Fed
will be exposed to criticism about political motivations if they engage in new
policy actions," Dye went on to say. "An increasing trend in the unemployment
rate would certainly catch the Fed's attention, boosting the likelihood of QE3,
but we are not there yet."