NEW YORK -

Perhaps one of the clearest data examples of how extensions or other contract modifications impact delinquencies and defaults within a short timeframe arrived this week courtesy of S&P Global Ratings, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian.

First, let’s look at the extensions recorded in December on auto financing within public asset-backed securities (ABS). S&P Global Ratings discovered they increased significantly.

For the public prime pools that analysts track, extensions soared 32.5% to 0.73%. For public subprime pools, they jumped 19.2% to 4.84%.

S&P Global Ratings attributed the increases to the following factors:

• Normal seasonal behavior due to customers often falling behind on their credit obligations at year-end

• COVID-19-related impact as many consumers remained out of work or had their hours trimmed due to business restrictions to combat the rise in infection rates

• Finance companies giving contract holders more time to make their payments as many individuals would receive stimulus checks of $600 per person (and an additional $600 per child) in January.

With December’s spike in extension rates, S&P Global Ratings reported that deferrals reached their highest levels since the summer.

On average, analysts said 60% of the prime accounts (on a dollar basis) that were 60-plus-days delinquent as of the end of December were accounts that were previously extended since March. In subprime, analysts noted the percentage was 68%.

“Early indications are, however, that January will show a significant improvement,” S&P Global Ratings said.

Well, speaking of January information, S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian released their data through January for the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices.

The auto default rate dropped 8 basis points on a sequential basis to 0.56% in January. That reading is 43 basis points lower than a year ago.

Auto defaults haven’t been above 1% in this monthly tracker since the close of 2019 when analysts pegged it at 1.02%, closing a stretch of four consecutive months at 1% or higher.

The lowest auto default reading ever recorded by S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian came in June when modification soared because of the pandemic. It bottomed out at 0.40%, then rose for five straight months.

Meanwhile, the composite rate — which represents a comprehensive measure of changes in consumer credit defaults — moved 2 basis points higher in January compared to the previous month to land at 0.48%.

In other credit segments, analysts reported the bank card default rate rose 9 basis points to 2.72%. and the first mortgage default rate ticked up 3 basis points to 0.32%.

Looking at the five largest cities S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian track each month, four generated higher default rates in January versus the previous month.

Miami increased the most with a gain of 9 basis points to come in at 0.95%, while New York wasn’t far off that pace, rising 7 basis points to 0.49%.

Chicago and Dallas each edged up 1 basis point to 0.53% and 0.57%, respectively.

Los Angeles was the only one of these five metropolitan areas to show a decrease, dipping 3 basis points to 0.32%.

Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, analysts noted the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and second mortgage lien.

The indices are calculated based on data extracted from Experian’s consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.

Experian’s base of data contributors includes leading banks and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.