S&P/Experian: Auto Default Rate Rise Now at 3 Straight Months
NEW YORK — For the third month in a row, auto loan defaults
inched higher according to the latest data incorporated into the S&P/Experian
Consumer Credit Default Indices.
The October information compiled by S&P Dow Jones
Indices and Experian showed the auto loan default rate ticked up to 1.14
percent, up from September's level of 1.11 percent. The August level of 1.09
percent, marking a rise from the all-time low set in July, which was 1.01
percent.
Meanwhile, S&P and Experian discovered that after nine
consecutive months of declining default rates, the national composite increased
to 1.55 percent in October from 1.46 percent in September.
Joining the October rise along with auto loan defaults were
both first mortgages (1.36 percent to 1.47 percent) and second mortgages (0.64
percent to 0.65 percent). The second mortgage rate moved up from the lowest
mark in its eight-plus year history established in September.
However, analysts pointed out the bank card default rate
posted the lowest post-recession rate of 3.68 percent in October as it was 3.70
percent in September.
"After three quarters of declining consumer credit default
rates, national composite increased in October," said David Blitzer, managing
director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"Overall consumer credit quality remains healthy," Blitzer
continued. "Looking across our 10 headline indices, all are at levels typical
of the pre-crisis period of the early 2000s. Only one — bank card — shows
default rate above 2.5 percent and even that hit the recent low, which is close
to its eight-year historic minimum."
"The national composite posted 1.55 percent in October, 9
basis points above the previous month's rate. This change was mostly driven by
an increase in the first mortgage default rate," he went on to say.
Looking at the data geographically, Blitzer noted three out
of five cities analysts cover showed a decrease in their default rates, and
two of them hit the post-recession lows.
Chicago's rate came in at 1.78 percent in October, down from
1.82 percent a month earlier. Los Angeles saw a third consecutive monthly decrease,
marginally down to 1.44 percent in October from the September rate of 1.45
percent.
While not establishing a post-recession low, analysts found
Miami's rate fell to 2.44 percent in October from 2.48 percent in September.
The nation's largest metro area, New York, produced an
October rate 7 basis points higher than September, settling at 1.35 percent.
S&P and Experian mentioned Dallas' rate increased the
most as its 1.26 percent rate in October spiked by 23 basis points from
September's level.
"(Dallas) still remains the lowest default rate of the five
cities we publish," Blitzer said.
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, Blitzer
reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published
monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer
balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and
second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from
Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual
consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks
and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding
loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.