S&P/Experian: Auto Loans Tick Higher Again as Most Consumer Credit Default Rates Hit New Lows
NEW YORK — The upward bounce from the reading's historic low
continued in September as the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices
showed auto loan defaults climbed for the second month in a row.
Analsyts from S&P Dow Jones Indices and Experian
determined the auto loan default rate increased to 1.11 percent in September.
In August, it was 1.09 percent. That record low rate came in July when it was
1.01 percent.
Despite the two-month rise, the September auto loan default
level remained below the year-ago reading. Last September, the index mark was
1.29 percent.
Meanwhile, the loan types the firms tracks experienced
decreases, including the national composite's ninth consecutive monthly
decline.
S&P and Experian determined that four of the five loan
types posted their lowest rate since the end of the 2007/2009 recession.
The bank card default rate fell in September to 3.70
percent, from August's mark of 3.77 percent, and the first mortgage default
rate decreased from 1.40 percent in August to 1.36 percent in September, both
hitting post-recession lows.
At 0.64 percent, the second mortgage default rate fell to
the lowest in its eight-plus year history.
Analysts added the composite index fell to a post-recession
low of 1.46 percent, down from August's 1.50 percent.
"We think it is very fair to say that 2012 has proven to be
a period of financial repair for consumers," said David Blitzer, managing
director and chairman of the index committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.
"Consumers' financial condition continues to improve as witnessed by these
declining credit default rates.
"Only the auto loan rate rose in September, up two basis
points to 1.11 percent. This is still a decent number, as the historic low for
such loans was 1.01 percent posted just two months ago in July," Blitzer said.
"Bank card, first and second mortgage and composite default
rates hit new post-recession lows. The first mortgage default rate has been
down or flat for nine consecutive months, another positive housing market
statistic," he went on to say. "The second mortgage default rate hit the lowest
rate in its eight-year history, 0.64 percent.
The firms noticed all five cities they cover showed a decrease
in their default rates. And three of them hit post-recession lows: Chicago, New
York and Los Angeles.
Chicago's rate was 1.82 percent in September, down from 1.92
percent in August. Los Angeles saw a second consecutive monthly decrease, down
to 1.45 percent in September from August's reading of 1.60 percent.
New York's default rate dropped the most. The September rate
of 1.28 percent was down 21 basis points from August's rate.
"While not quite at post-recession lows, Dallas and Miami
rates are close to them," Blitzer said
Dallas' September rate was 1.03 percent, down 4 basis points
from August.
"Dallas has the lowest default rate of the five cities we
publish," Blitzer said.
Miami's rate fell by 14 basis points to 2.48 percent in
September.
"Again, not a new low, but an incredibly good number when
you compare it to the 18.89 percent rate witnessed in May 2009," Blitzer said.
"There is no doubt that from a borrowing perspective the
consumer is in a much better place than two or three years ago," he continued.
"We have seen broad-based declining trends in default rates
through all of 2012, and all markets and loan types are at or near
pre-recession lows," Blitzer said. "For some of these markets, such as Miami,
the difference in the past three years has been quite extraordinary."
Jointly developed by S&P Indices and Experian, Blitzer
reiterated the S&P/Experian Consumer Credit Default Indices are published
monthly with the intent to accurately track the default experience of consumer
balances in four key loan categories: auto, bankcard, first mortgage lien and
second mortgage lien.
The indices are calculated based on data extracted from
Experian's consumer credit database. This database is populated with individual
consumer loan and payment data submitted by lenders to Experian every month.
Experian's base of data contributors includes leading banks
and mortgage companies and covers approximately $11 trillion in outstanding
loans sourced from 11,500 lenders.
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