Edmunds.com: Ford Poised for Rare New-Vehicle Sales Feat in March

In making its March new-vehicle sales forecast, Edmunds.com surmised that Ford could achieve something it’s done only once before since 1998.

Site analysts think Ford could move 210,400 units this month, an amount that’s up 14.5 percent compared to March of last year and 34.4 percent higher than February.

Should Ford sell that many models, the automaker would overtake General Motors for the No. 1 sale spot. Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell pinpointed how long it’s been since Ford bumped GM out of that position.

“GM seems to have pulled back on incentives in March and could suffer a sales hangover through the next few months, given that the company’s earlier offers have been quite generous and may have pulled ahead future sales,” Caldwell explained.

“Unless GM generates significant month-end activity or Ford runs into constraints with inventory, Ford may overtake GM in monthly sales for only the second time since 1998,” she continued.

Despite what Caldwell described as a possible hangover, Edmunds.com predicted that GM would sell 208,400 units in March. Should the company achieve that level, it would be 10.8 percent higher than the same month a year ago, but just a 0.7-percent uptick from February.

With Ford and GM appearing poised to secure the No. 1 sales spot this month, analysts estimated the combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and GM to be 42.8 percent, down from 43.6 percent in March of last year and down from 46.2 percent last month.

All told, Edmunds.com believe March’s new-vehicle sales total will come it at approximately 1,242,000 units — a 16.5-percent increase from last March and a 25.1-percent spike from February.

The site predicted March’s retail sales to be approximately 987,000 units, up from approximately 786,000 last month.

Should those figures arrive, Edmunds.com analysts think March’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.07 million, down from 13.38 million in February. They suspect SAAR for retail sales is expected to decline from last month to about 10.4 million in March.

In order to move those units, the site computed that the average amount of automaker incentives in the U.S. is estimated to be $2,321 per vehicle sold. That figure is down $245 or 9.5 percent, from February and is off by $494 or 17.5 percent from March of last year.

The site pointed out this month had 27 selling days, one more than March 2010.

Edmunds.com Highlights Six Non-Hybrid Vehicles That Earn 40 MPG

In other analysis from Edmunds.com, the site recently reviewed six of what it thinks are the most fuel-efficient gas-powered vehicles — including five gas-sipping newcomers — in the recently published feature “Meet the 40 MPG Club.”

The five new vehicles from the 2011 and 2012 model years that achieve 40 miles per gallon on the highway include:

—2011 Chevy Cruze Eco: “The Cruze Eco’s impressive fuel economy is a result of improved aerodynamic design and lighter weight,” Edmunds.com found.

—2011 Ford Fiesta SE SFE: “The Super Fuel Economy package is available on both sedan and hatchback models and includes aerodynamic enhancements, automated manual transmission and electrically assisted steering,” the site highlighted.

—2012 Ford Focus SFE: “The Focus SFE model adds low rolling resistance tires, high-pressure direct fuel injection, engine cooling shutters and the automated manual transmission also found in the Fiesta,” analysts pointed out.

—2012 Honda Civic HF: “Honda recently announced that the upcoming Civic will be available in a ‘high fuel economy’ model that includes a five-speed automatic transmission, special aerodynamic components, and ECO Assist — a technology that uses visual aids on the dashboard to help the driver improve fuel efficiency,” Edmunds.com mentioned.

—2011 Hyundai Elantra: “All styles of the affordable 2011 Elantra line earn 40 mpg thanks to its aluminum engine and widespread use of lightweight steel,” the site explained.

These five models join the site’s charter 40 MPG Club member Smart Fortwo, which first broke the 40 mpg barrier with its 2010 model. Edmunds.com conceded the Fortwo is still the quintessential lightweight vehicle with a fuel-efficient engine, but the site believes Americans generally don’t consider it a unit suited for freeways because of its size.

“The 40 MPG Club is getting a whole lot bigger in the U.S. at just the right time, when gasoline is regularly topping $4 per gallon in many parts of the country,” noted Edmunds.com associate editor Scott Doggett.

“These cars are great choices for consumers who want better fuel economy but aren’t ready to make the switch to hybrid or electric vehicles,” Doggett added.