Beggs: Black Book Editors Now at Work on 2012 Residual Value Projections
Now with half of 2011 already passed, Black Book managing editor Ricky Beggs indicated that he and his colleagues are steadily working on projected residual values for the 2012 models that are now appearing in the wholesale market.
“You may be thinking as to what does projecting residuals have to do with the current used market trends? Give me a call, and I will be happy to talk about this piece of our work and data,” Beggs responded during his latest video report, “Beggs on the Used Car Market.”
“We see the used market making a slight adjustment in order to create room for a new model year that is and will be entering the market,” he continued.
“Several dealers have told me recently that they feel the market adjustment will not be as much as we would normally see due to the current limited supply of used cars,” Beggs added.
As part of the Black Book Residual Value Guides, Beggs mentioned that several editors planned to work offsite this week. They will be gathering some in-depth technical information on how some models — including a couple of utility vehicles — will be striving to obtain “impressive fuel economy levels.”
Beggs said there will be more details about that project to come at a later time.
Beggs then turned back to how the current wholesale market is behaving, asking dealers if they’ve spotted what he believes is a bright spot.
“Look at most any solid average or clean vehicle that is five to six years old,” he suggested. “We are seeing fewer no sales on the auction lanes of the models from that older vintage.”
With last week including the Fourth of July, Beggs acknowledged that many times the week of a holiday brings a market that is less active than normal with smaller consignments.
This past week, Black Book discovered that the time frame showed signs that some auctions were “definitely in that holiday mode.”
However, Beggs pointed out “other auctions were trucking right along."
“As one of the Black Book survey personnel reported, it was a ‘tough holiday sale with lower consignment,’” he continued.
“Along with this activity, one dealer commented to us at an auction that the market ‘appears to be adjusting.’ This adjustment that we saw this past week is a continuation of the last several weeks,” Beggs went on to say.
Black Book determined only a few units are moving up in value week over week.
This past week with almost 1,950 vehicles adjusted each day and 20 percent of adjustments being increases to the value, Black Book said this was the smallest number of positive adjustments since the week ending Nov. 19, 2010.
Beggs also calculated the average decline of $78 for all the adjusted vehicles this past week was the largest amount dating back for 22 weeks, a stretch that goes back to Feb. 18.
Black Book noted last week marked the second one in a row where all 10 car segment types declined. The trend also marked the fourth straight week of an overall car decline as last week’s mark came in at a dip of $18.
Among car segment drops Black Book highlighted were entry sporty cars and full-size cars (both down $5), prestige luxury cars (down $27), luxury level cars (down $28), upper midsize cars (down $31).
In regard to trucks, Black Book indicated the segment decline overall for the 10th week in a row. In fact, last week’s decline was the largest of that stretch as trucks were off by $51.
The three segment types with the most significant adjustments consisted of the luxury SUVs (down $152), full-size SUVs (down $125) and full-size pickups (down $75).
Beggs mentioned only midsize pickup trucks (up $8) and the cargo versions of minivans (up $1) were the only increasing truck segments for the week.
“We’ll be on the auction lanes all week tracking and reporting the market. Have a great week,” Beggs concluded.
Beggs’ videos can be viewed here