BANDON, Ore. -

While often the reference for used-vehicle sales data, CNW Research late last week shared projections about how July new-vehicles sales might settle and why.

CNW thinks there will be 1.105 million new sales this month, a figure that would represent a 5.3-percent rise from July of last year.

President Art Spinella used that July prediction to forecast a SAAR level of 12.1 million.

To arrive at those marks, CNW noticed trends that indicate floor traffic at franchise dealerships has picked up during the period July 15 through July 22.

“Weekend traffic was significantly better than a year ago,” Spinella surmised.

“During the opening weeks, floor traffic was up about 1.2 percent but has increased of late to a level that would make the full-month floor traffic increase of 2.2 percent,” he continued.

However, Spinella acknowledged that closing ratios remain weak at about 34 percent. “But the added number of shoppers is providing a larger pool of potential buyers,” he added.

Moving on to more new-vehicle sales trends, CNW spotted climbing incentive levels. The firm noted incentive spending by manufacturers was up about 2.5 percent from a year ago.

And specifically during the period between July 15 and 21, that incentive rise was 3.6 percent year-over-year, according to CNW.

“Dealers are footing a larger part of the incentive bill, representing a bit more than 1.5 percent versus June, yet still well below a year ago,” Spinella pointed out.

“Average dealer give-back from gross is at $1,670 per unit,” he added.