SANTA MONICA, Calif. -

Though the SAAR is expected to reach 13.4 million units this month — the highest it has been since Aug. 2009, when the Cash for Clunkers program inflated new-car sales — Edmunds.com worries the industry may be in the midst of a “small sales bubble.”

With new-car sales expected to reach 1,033,257 units sold this month, senior analyst at Edmunds.com Jessica Caldwell delved into the reasons behind why the company thinks these high sales rates won’t last: “October’s sales numbers are certainly a bright spot in a sluggish economy, but it would be a mistake to believe that this momentum is the ‘new normal."

“Unless early holiday incentives inspire droves of buyers in November, we don’t expect sales to increase on the same trajectory as we have seen in the last two months,” she continued.

Continuing the explanation for their prediction, company officials noted they attribute October’s sales results to the release of pent-up demand that has been building for more than a year — potentially creating a sales bubble.

Though sales are up year-over-year (13 percent), they are expected to fall 1.9 percent from September’s rates.

As a result, Edmunds.com estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 10.7 million vehicles in October.

Breaking the company’s predictions down by manufacturer, two of the Big 3 are set to benefit the most during this month, with one Japanese automaker trailing closely behind.

General Motors is expected to sell 196,157 units this month, which marks a 6.9 percent climb year-over-year and a 5.3 decline September.

Next comes Ford, with a very similar outlook. The Blue Oval is expected to sell 170,259  new units, computing into an 8 percent rise from October 2010 and a 2.6 percent slide from the past month.

Interestingly, Toyota is expected to fall into third place by sales volume, making a fast recovery from this past springs natural disasters in Japan, as well as the recent floods in Thailand. That said, the nameplate still has quite a bit of ground to make up from last year.

The automaker is expected to sell 130,925 units, showing a 10-percent slide from October 2010. On the other hand, this forecast translates into a 7.8 percent increase from September’s sales rate.

Edmunds.com also offered the below chart:


                                                             
Sharing predictions beyond October and into this coming year, Edmunds.com chief economist Lacey Plache predicts that that 2012 car sales will reach approximately 13.5 million, up from 12.6 million units expected to be sold in 2011.

Backing this assertion, the company expectd that improved buying conditions and the release of anticipated models, such as the 2012 Toyota Camry, the 2013 Chevy Malibu and the 2013 Ford Fusion is likely attract customers to dealerships countrywide.

“Loosening credit standards and low interest rates will provide extra motivation for buyers to return to the market in 2012,” said Plache.

“Some consumers will feel compelled to replace aging vehicles, while others weary of the recession, may be triggered by an urge to spend. But the slow pace of overall economic recovery in the U.S. will keep sales growth at a moderate pace,” she concluded.