DETROIT -

While only one of the Big 3 OEMs is expected to be among the top 10 for global growth, the U.S. automakers are still likely to see their worldwide market share remain on the upswing during the next five years, according to KPMG’s 13th annual global automotive executive survey.

Leading the way for the Big 3 is likely to be Ford, as 47 percent of the 200 C-level auto executives surveyed believe the automaker will increase its global market share. A year ago, 43 percent said the same, and only 29 percent expected growth for Ford in 2010.

Moreover, Ford ranked eighth on the list of automakers projected to boost their market share.

Meanwhile, Chrysler/Fiat was forecasted to see growth by 39 percent of executives. KPMG indicated this is good sign of the alliance between Chrysler and Fiat.

The year-ago numbers for the companies separately was lower, with Chrysler at 24 percent and Fiat at 31 percent.

As General Motors, 38 percent of the execs believe it will increase its share. Though down from 40 percent last year, it marks a significant hike compared to the 13-percent level in 2010.

“This year’s survey results clearly demonstrate that the investments in new products and product innovation over the past several years have helped U.S. auto manufacturers become more competitive,” explained Gary Silberg, national automotive industry leader for KPMG.

“Moreover, it is a clear indication that perceptions of U.S. automakers and auto quality have changed,” he continued.

For example, 62 percent of respondents projected market-share declines for the Big 3 in the 2007 survey. Less than a sixth (14 percent) predicted gains.

That said, almost two-thirds (64 percent) of the respondents that year said they believed the U.S. automakers would wrap up restructuring before 2011. Almost three-fifths (58 percent) of the execs said the restructuring would help the Big 3 become more efficient and competitive. Only 10 percent said it wouldn’t.

“As recent sales figures might demonstrate, U.S. OEMs have much stronger product portfolios, and as a result they are returning to profitability,” Silberg noted.

Moving along, the list of the projected top 10 market-share gainers is as follows:

1. Volkswagen
2. Hyundai/Kia
3. BMW
4. Tata
5. BAIC Motor Co.
6. SAIC Motor
7. Chery Motors
8. Ford
9. Nissan
10. Geely

As the list shows, seven of the 10 are from Asia, including a few from China (BAIC, SAIC, Chery, Geely) and one from India (Tata).

Moreover, Japanese brands Toyota (No. 11) and Honda (No. 12) were close behind.

“In addition to the re-emergence of the U.S. automakers, perhaps the most intriguing story in the global auto industry is the enormous momentum we’re seeing from the Chinese and Indian OEMs,” Silberg shared.

“Given their lower current base market share levels, it is not surprising to see predicted market share growth for brands such as SAIC, Chery and Tata, although the majority of that growth will come from their domestic markets in the short-term,” he added. “However, these companies will continue to change the global automotive landscape in the coming years as sales and exports from those countries continue to climb.”

It wasn’t all positive news from Asian brands, as the list of brands most often projected to lose ground included Subaru, Mitsubishi, Suzuki and Mazda.

Chinese, Indian Car Markets

Next up, KPMG looked at India and China, two auto markets it has found are “building momentum.”

Starting with China, 39 percent of respondents projected China’s vehicle sales will surpass an annual total of 22 million by 2016, while 36 percent are predicting China will move 20 million to 22 million units. About a fifth (21 percent) project a sales total from 18 million to 20 million cars.

Roughly a third (32 percent) of execs predict that within a year or two, Chinese automakers’ exports will surpass 1 million vehicles annually. Forty-two percent believe it will take two to five years.

That said, the U.S. is still forecasted to remain runner-up to China for the next five years in terms of production and sales volume.

Moving on to India, 18 percent of executives think the nation will have annual sales higher than 5 million by 2016, while 78 percent believe it will be in the 3 million to 5 million range.

As for exports out of India, 12 percent forecast it will only take between one and two years before 1 million cars come out of the country annually. Meanwhile, 29 percent believe that it will take two to five years, and more than two-fifths (43 percent) put the time frame at five to 10 years.

“Chinese and Indian automakers have significantly stepped up their games, and our survey found that global auto executives expect similar growth in Brazil and Russia,” Silberg noted. “You cannot have sales and export growth without a concurrent increase in production. However, that raises the risk of overcapacity if domestic and export demand unexpectedly decline.”

KPMG also noted that China will have both the largest auto production volume and manufacturing capacity by 2016.

“As such, it comes as no surprise that China is expected to become the most overbuilt BRIC country in five years’ time,” Silberg noted. “Overcapacity in emerging markets will undeniably become an issue in the near-term and will likely result in a ripe market for M&A and alliances.”

Mergers and Acquisitions, Joint Ventures

Lastly, KPMG touched on mergers and acquisitions activity, as well as joint ventures. The survey indicates that the importance of these activities to the auto industry will remain strong in the next five years.

“In fact, when asked which strategies have the greatest potential to enhance profitability in the auto industry over the next five years, executives selected ‘entering into strategic alliances/joint-ventures,’” KPMG noted.

Executives project that China, Eastern Europe and Russia will see especially strong activity. As for the most popular reasons for automakers exploring M&A/JV, executives pointed to the following reasons: access to new technologies and products, access to new markets and customers and access to scales and synergies.

Editor’s Note: To read Part I of Auto Remarketing’s look at KPMG’s 13th annual global automotive executive survey, visit here.