CARY, N.C. -

This year will mark “the beginning of a slight decline in total” used-vehicle sales, says Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke.

But keep this in mind: used-vehicle sales by dealerships should keep on climbing.

“We believe the retail market will continue to grow as the supply shifts to higher-quality, younger and more expensive used vehicles,” Smoke said during Wednesday’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Quarterly Call.

Specifically, Cox Automotive is forecasting 39.4 million total used-vehicle sales this year, down from an estimated 39.6 million in 2019. That sum includes both used-vehicle sales by dealers as well as those between private parties.

Retail used-vehicle sales, which Cox Automotive defines as those made by franchised or independent dealers, are expected to rise from an estimated 20.0 million in 2019 to 20.3 million in 2020.

Separately, in a Data Point analysis released Tuesday, Cox Automotive pegged the 13-month rolling SAAR for overall used-car sales at 40 million in December, which was static year-over-year.  In November, it was 39.7 million.

Meanwhile, the used retail SAAR — again, only considering used-vehicle sales by dealers — was an estimated 20.1 million last month, compared to 19.6 million in December 2018, according to Cox Automotive.  In November, it was at 19.3 million.

In more promising news for dealers, Smoke said during Wednesday’s call that certified pre-owned sales broke another annual record. The company plans to share more analysis on CPO next week.

Used cars continue to be a strong option for consumers, with many picking pre-owned over new.

The National Automobile Dealers Association said in an analysis Wednesday that affordability issues on the new-car side, along with robust used-car inventory levels, have some consumers moving from new to used.

“As affordability remains a challenge, more consumers chose used vehicles in 2019,” NADA chief economist Patrick Manzi said in the analysis. “New cars are getting too expensive for many consumers. Even consumers with great credit or the ability to buy new are instead choosing a used vehicle.” 

NADA is calling for 39.5 million used-car sales this year, which would be flat year-over-year.