CARY, N.C. -
You can expect November to finish with 3 million used-vehicle sales, according to the latest forecast from ALG and TrueCar, which would mark a 1% year-over-year decline. 
 
The drop from October would be even more pronounced (11%).
 
In a Data Point report released Nov. 18, Cox Automotive indicated that a 30-day period covering pieces of October and November had the lowest used-car sales since the beginning of May. Pre-owned sales for that fall stretch were off 18% year-over-year and 28% softer than the apex in late June. 
 
Softer used sales were among factors driving higher supply, the company explained.
 
In the Data Point report, Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said: “Used-vehicle supply is likely rising for a number of reasons. Higher prices for used vehicles are likely slowing sales. Plus, more trade-ins from improving new-vehicle sales are coming into the market along with ongoing off-lease vehicles. The combination of all of those factors are causing days’ supply to rise.”
 
Meantime, ALG and TrueCar project a 2.9% year-over-year jump in new-car retail sales (adjusted for selling days) for November. New sales are expected to beat October numbers by 8.4% and reach 1.10 million units.  
 
“As Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday inch closer, we anticipate the new-vehicle sales momentum from the past three months to continue with increases year-over-year for new retail sales,” ALG chief industry analyst Eric Lyman said in a news release. 
 
“We expect many consumers who have not been financially affected by the pandemic to make their vehicle purchases this month, especially with fewer people traveling this holiday season and with inventory rebounding,” he said. 
 
“Last year, the average discount on Black Friday was 10.2% off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price and we expect similar deals for this year,” Lyman said.