NADA data has Fitch Ratings upbeat about dealer floorplan ABS performance
Fitch Ratings cited multiple data points from the National Automobile Dealers Association in explaining its reasons to state that dealer floorplan asset-backed securities (ABS) performance is expected to be stable in 2021.
Along with the strong profit metrics noted by NADA, Fitch said its dealer floorplan ABS asset performance and rating outlooks are stable for this year due to solid ABS trust dealer metrics. Those metrics include strong monthly payment rates driven by healthy vehicle demand and low inventories along with the ability of dealers to adapt to ongoing challenges.
Fitch pointed out that NADA said the average U.S. dealer net pretax profit was $1.79 million per dealership, as of November. Analysts noted that’s the highest level since 2009.
Fitch went on to mention other NADA information that showed the average total operating profit through the first 11 months of 2020 was more than $520,000, which is four times higher than the same period in 2019.
Even as sales dropped 14% year-over-year in 2020, Fitch recapped that NADA said the average dealership’s retail gross profit per new vehicle was up 18% to $2,376 and climbed 12% to $2,672 per used vehicle, compared with 2019.
“Regardless of the issues related to the pandemic, 2020 turned out to be the most profitable year in history for most networks supporting DFP ABS, in part supported by lender interest curtailment and/or deferral programs along with federal payroll loans,” Fitch said in a news release distributed this week. “Dealers have cut costs and profit margins remain robust.”
Fitch acknowledged there are some headwinds when considering floorplans, especially when considering low GDP growth for the entire U.S. economy, elevated unemployment and vehicle inflationary pressures that all could slow consumer demand and dealer sales from current levels.
Analysts also mentioned that floorplans also might be impacted because of interruptions in the production of new vehicles at factories around the world due to the pandemic and the global semiconductor microchip shortage.
Fitch estimated that total new-model inventory stood at 2.8 million units as of Feb. 1, down from 3.3 million units a year earlier.
“Production issues and resulting low inventories are not expected to significantly affect dealer floorplan ABS performance metrics, and ratings are expected to be stable due to robust credit enhancement levels along with structural features that insulate ratings from performance pressures,” Fitch said.
“Furthermore, ABS net default levels are conservatively set at typically 10 times to 20 times or higher than actual losses,” the firm added.