The respective Black Book and Cox Automotive used-vehicle value indices both reached their lowest levels since March 2021, but the erosion in wholesale prices could be on its way out, according to analysis accompanying one of the reports.

Cox’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index came in at 196.1 last month, down 8.9% year-over-year and 0.6% month-over-month, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality. Unadjusted, wholesale vehicle prices fell 2.2% month-over-month and 10.0% from June 2023.

Black Book’s Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 146.6 for June, which was off 1.4% from May and down 15.5% from a year ago.

“In June, the pace of depreciation increased as wholesale values across all segments experienced larger declines than typical seasonality,” Black Book vice president of analytics Laura Wehunt said in a news release.

“These larger-than-typical declines caused the Black Book Retention Index to fall by 1.4%, with all individual reporting segments also showing a decline in their index readings.”

Both indices are at their lowest points in more than three years and continue long streaks of declines.

However, that drop-off appears to have reached a plateau, and the back half of the year could tell a different story, Cox analysts said.

“Wholesale value declines have been stronger than we normally see for much of the last two months,” said Jeremy Robb, who is senior director of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, in a news release.

“However, even though much of the industry was feeling the retail sales disruptions caused by the CDK outages in the latter part of the month, Manheim started to see wholesale price declines decelerate, ending the month at a seasonally normal pace,” Robb said. “Sales conversion is currently running several points above the previous three years, including 2021, indicating that buyer demand is relatively strong despite all the uncertainty in the market.”

Regarding sales rates, Wehunt said in the Black Book analysis, “Throughout the month, auction conversion rates remained stable in the mid-50-percent range, but days to turn in the retail market increased each week, ending the month at 45 days compared to 38 days at the start.”

Despite the years-long slowdown in wholesale values, Cox suggests that the second half of 2024 should see some gains.

“We think the decline may be nearing its floor, which should help stabilize the market through the summer months and rebound in the back half of the year,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in the report.

“Between increasing demand, slowing price declines, and slightly better interest rates, all of our indicators point to an optimistic outlook for the rest of the year,” Smoke said. “We may even see a few months of growth before the end of 2024.”

As for June, compact cars showed the steepest drop in wholesale values, falling 12.0%, according to Cox Automotive. Luxury vehicles were down 9.9%, midsize cars were off 11.0%, pickups fell 8.3% and SUVs/CUVs were off 9.3%.

Non-electric vehicle values fell 9.5%, while EV values dropped 16.6%, Cox said.