The slowdown in supply of later-model used vehicles is already having an impact in the retail car market, according to industry analyses released this month.

Cars Commerce said in its latest Industry Insights Report that used-car inventory was up 1% year-over-year in July, due mostly to inventory of sub-$30,000 vehicles climbing 9%.

But for $30,000 to $49,000 vehicles — which is the price range typical for 1- to 3-year-old used vehicles — inventory fell 15%, according to Cars Commerce.

These days, it’s tougher to find lower-mileage, later-model lightly used vehicles, the company said.

“Notably, used vehicles priced under $20,000 now carry an average of 93,000 odometer miles as of July 2024, up 33% in the last five years. These high-mileage vehicles may require significant service to remain roadworthy,” said Rebecca Lindland, senior director of industry data and insights at Cars Commerce, in an analysis.

“The shortage of low-mileage, lightly used inventory is especially noticeable in the higher-end used-vehicle market. For the over-$50,000 used-vehicle segment, the average price is $77,000, which is more than the average cost of a new luxury vehicle.”

Driven by new-vehicle production cuts in 2020 and 2021, the CarGurus Used Vehicle Availability Index for July fell 3.6% month-over-month, dropped 2.8% year-over-year and is 12.1% softer than pre-COVID levels, according to July Intelligence Report from CarGurus.

“The shortage of younger used vehicles will likely continue to be an issue for years to come due to depressed new sales during the pandemic-induced chip shortage and particularly the decline in leasing in recent years,” said Kevin Roberts, CarGurus director of industry insights and analytics, in the analysis.

“One outcome of this shortage is that it could help to stabilize used vehicle prices by keeping late-model vehicle prices higher, which should keep older vehicle prices from declining sharply,” Roberts said.

Used-car prices are also being impacted by what’s happening with supply in the new-car market.

Average transaction prices for used vehicles came in at $27,472 in Q2, down 6.8% from a year ago, according to Edmunds. Meantime, days-to-turn for used vehicles had a “negligible increase,” moving from 34 days to 35 days, the company said.

“These trends in the used market are a direct reflection of dynamics in the new-car market as inventory levels normalize: The average discount for new vehicles climbed to $1,687 in Q2 2024 compared to $611 in Q2 2023, while the average days to turn for new vehicles increased to 53 days in Q2 2024 compared to 37 days in Q2 2023,” Edmunds’ director of insights Ivan Drury wrote in an analysis of Q2 used-car trends.

“A buildup of new vehicles on lots over the past year has been the catalyst for discounts and incentives on aging inventory,” Drury said. “As these new-car prices trend downward, values of newer used vehicles have correspondingly declined.”