The year started off with expectations there might be a return to normal in the used-car market.

Well, that doesn’t exactly appear to be the case one month into 2025.

Industry observers releasing wholesale vehicle price indices last week noted “uncertainty” and surprises in the market to begin the year.

At Black Book, the Used Vehicle Retention Index came in at 146.3 last month, down 1.2% month-over-month and 2.5% softer than January 2024.

“As 2025 began, market trends appeared aligned with pre-pandemic seasonal patterns. Expectations for a stable market were high, fueled by the prospect of a spring market and the anticipation that this year would mark a low point in used-vehicle volume,” Black Book vice president of data and analytics Laura Wehunt said.

“However, as we enter February, significant uncertainty surrounds the automotive industry’s outlook for the year, largely due to potential legislative changes prompted by the new administration,” Wehunt said. “Unresolved issues include tariffs, interest rates and incentives for electric vehicles.”

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, meanwhile, came in at 205.6, 0.4% higher month-over-month and up 0.8% year-over-year, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality, parent company Cox Automotive said in an analysis.

Unadjusted, the index was up 0.6% month-over-month and climbed 1.1% year-over-year.

In fact, it was the highest reading for the Manheim index in 15 months, said Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive’s senior director of economic and industry insights.

“While it’s not yet spring, wholesale values increased more than we usually see in the month of January, with particular strength at the end of the month,” Robb said in the report.

“The Manheim index is at the highest point since October 2023, after we experienced stronger-than-usual gains in non-seasonally adjusted values,” he said. “Currently, retail days’ supply at used dealerships sits nine days lower than last year, and we are just now on the cusp of starting the spring wholesale market.”

Breaking it down by select market classes, activity was “mixed,” Cox said: luxury vehicles (up 2.0%) and SUVs/CUVs (up 1.2%) were the two that showed price increases from January 2024. Compact cars were down 3.4%, midsize cars were down 1.6% and pickups fell 2.1%.