Is now the right time for used-car shoppers to strike?

That’s the $30,000 (give or take) question.

There was some year-over-year easing in retail used-car prices last month, according to the latest CARFAX Used Car Index report, which showed declines in six of the seven segments included in its analysis.

But compared to January, it was more of a mixed bag: Prices for SUVs were up 0.5% month-over-month, prices for cars fell 0.9%.

Pickups were down 1.1% from January and were off 5.6% year-over-year in February, which was the first time in the brief history of the index they have been below $32,000, CARFAX editor in chief Patrick Olsen wrote.

“To be sure, that’s not cheap, but it’s a lot less expensive than pickups have been recently,” Olsen said.

Compared to January, luxury SUVs were up 0.9%, luxury cars fell 0.6%, hybrids & EVs climbed 0.6% and vans were up 1.5%.

Of the four segments whose prices climbed month-over-month, Olsen said, “We’ll have to monitor to see whether these are temporary price hikes, or a sign that outside forces will lead to higher prices.”

He also pointed to seasonal impacts like tax season refunds as well as broader economic factors like interest rates and the threat of tariffs.

There’s also the dynamics of the new-car market, where the semiconductor chip shortage from the COVID era is now heavily impacting the used-car market, which Edmunds detailed in a recent analysis.

“Holdout buyers with hopes of returning to a market resembling the pre-COVID era are being greeted with mixed results. New-vehicle availability has improved greatly, and new cars are once again sitting on dealer lots long enough to encourage discounts,” Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds, wrote in the analysis.

“But new-car prices are still higher than ever, and years of low new-car sales now have used-car shoppers feeling the effects of a used vehicle inventory shortage,” he said.

Especially those looking for 3-year-old vehicles, whose average price in the fourth quarter was $29,710, up 3.3% year-over-year, according to Edmunds.

“2025 may also be the start of another pendulum swing: If prices for used vehicles hold steady or rise further as supply dwindles,” Drury wrote, “some used-car shoppers might entertain the idea of checking out new vehicles as discounts and incentives make a jump to the new-car smell more appealing.”

In an analysis released Feb. 20, J.D. Power forecast that average incentive spend per new vehicle would hit $3,227 for February, a 22.8% year-over-year hike, but emphasized new-car prices still remained high. They were expected to come in at $44,619 for the month, up 0.2% year-over-year.

“So far in February, used-vehicle retail prices have exhibited strength. The average used-vehicle price is $28,263, up $289 from a year ago,” Thomas King, president of the data and analytics division at J.D. Power, said in the analysis.

“Despite relatively strong used prices, consumers have less equity on their trade-ins. Average trade-in equity is expected to decline $173 from a year ago, trending towards $7,625,” he said.

“Furthermore, the proportion of new-vehicle buyers who have negative equity on their trade-in is increasing. Currently, 25.5% of trade-ins have negative equity, up 2.0 percentage points from February 2024,” King added. “These trade-in equity dynamics further exacerbate the industry’s affordability challenges, as more consumers must now deal with the double challenge of high new-vehicle prices compounded by negative equity, leading to even higher monthly loan payments.”