‘Roller coaster’ just beginning in wholesale car market, as tariffs drive urgency

The basketball court wasn’t the only place for “madness” last month.
With tariffs on the horizon and automotive uncertainty swirling, March produced a flurry of activity in the wholesale car market.
The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles — which became effective Thursday — led to “increased urgency” from consumers to buy new cars before prices climb, Cox Automotive said, and that is likely to trickle down to used cars.
“I think we have officially started our roller-coaster ride,” Cox Automotive chief economist Jonathan Smoke said in analysis around the company’s Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index. “March used-vehicle values were higher on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, but compared to recent Marches, it did not quite live up to what we’ve seen.
“And it appeared the ‘spring bounce’ was starting to end. But then suddenly: The tariff announcement. And the most recent activity suggests we’re going to see a sizeable increase in the index in April,” Smoke said.
For March, the Manheim index came in at 202.6, down from 204.1 in February and off 0.2% year-over-year, when adjusting for mix, mileage and seasonality.
Unadjusted, the index was up 2.7% month-over-month and up 0.4% year-over-year, as the “seasonal adjustment caused the index to decline for the month, as non-seasonally adjusted values rose but not enough to account for the normal seasonal move,” Cox said.
“March is typically the strongest month for wholesale markets, so it’s normal to see values rise. However, this year’s price increases were not enough to meet seasonal expectations, which is why our Index shows a decline,” said Jeremy Robb, Cox Automotive senior director of economic and industry insights, in the analysis.
“Used retail demand remained strong throughout March, with days’ supply ending at low levels, driving healthy activity at Manheim. While we initially thought appreciation trends peaked mid-month, we saw a reacceleration of weekly gains for wholesale values in the last week,” Robb said. “Given the impact of tariffs, we may see stronger wholesale prices for the coming weeks as the market decides how to handle new tariffs at the border.”
At Black Book, its Used Vehicle Retention Index, seasonally adjusted, came in at 147.9, up 1.0% month-over-month and down 2.6% year-over-year.
“Values often increase at this time of year, but what set this March apart was the pace of the rise,” Black Bok vice president of data & analytics Laura Wehunt said in analysis around the index. “Market uncertainty stemmed from discussions about potential tariffs, while expectations of a reduced supply of used vehicles this year heightened competition.
“Additionally, the seasonal lift from tax refunds and spring purchases boosted demand. These factors combined to strengthen auction activity, leading to strong conversion rates and an increase in values that exceeded usual seasonal trends.”