SCHAUMBURG, Ill. -

Since fuel prices again appear to be a higher priority within consumers’ budgets, Experian Automotive’s quarterly look at market trends recapped recent gas price spikes in hopes it could shed light on what’s in the future.

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“Certainly the media likes to jump on gas prices, so there’s a lot of attention is paid to it as contributing factors as far as sales volumes,” explained Jeffrey Anderson, Experian’s director of consulting and analytics.

“We certainly remember back in 2008 when gas exceeded $4 a gallon and then it dropped down pretty quickly by the end of the year to $1.60 a gallon,” Anderson recalled during a Webinar this week. “There was a very quick reaction within the small economy car segment. This was the one most highly correlated with gas prices."

Anderson went on to demonstrate how the wild swing in gas prices almost three years ago left dealers scrambling for inventory. He noted that sales volume within the small economy unit segment soared 60 percent within four months then dropped back down to nearly the same level as it was when 2008 began.

And, Anderson mentioned how sales volumes for full-size pickups swung wildly back in 2008, as well. While the sales volume changes weren’t quite to the level as economy vehicles, Anderson conceded that gas prices have prevented a pickup truck sales return to pre-2008 levels.

A gas-price rise during the middle of 2009 also swelled the sales volume for economy vehicles. Anderson pointed out how it’s difficult to get a firm reading on how fuel prices sparked those sales because Cash for Clunkers pushed demand for those units, too.

With gas prices above $3 for many parts of the nation, Anderson emphasized that sales volumes for economy units and pickup trucks have stayed relatively stable for several months.

“But it’s pretty tough for manufacturers to make and stock vehicles when you have multiple-percentage-point changes in sales volume shares,” Anderson offered.

Rise in Horsepower, MPG Performance

Loosely related to fuel costs, another segment of Anderson’s presentation delved deeply into the near steady rise of both vehicle horsepower and miles-per-gallon capability.

Experian analysis revealed that vehicles’ average horsepower climbed almost steadily from a little above 160 horsepower back in 1997 to above 200 horsepower in 2010, a rise of 30 percent.

During that same span, the miles-per-gallon average stood at just below 25 mpg, moving to a point last year where the average ticked up to almost 30 mpg — a gain of more than 15 percent.

Anderson cited all of this data in light of federal mandates that declare CAFE standards must be 34.1 mpg or greater by 2016. That threshold is 20 percent higher than the 2010 average.

“A lot of horsepower gains are based on consumer choice, obviously, but a lot of it is also based on computer technology that goes into engines. Fuel injection, direct injection and all of the computer management of engines have had an impact,” Anderson explained.

“What may surprise people is miles per gallon also has increased but not to the same degree,” he continued.

“The bottom line is what are consumers willing to trade off for increased fuel economy as the industry moves forward? Is horsepower going to increase? remain stable or even drop? Are the sizes of vehicles going to change? There are a lot of levers that you can push and pull to try to get to that goal by 2016,” Anderson went on to say.

Could Hybrids Gain More Market Share?

With so much discussion dedicated to fuel prices and vehicle performance, Anderson also went into Experian’s data about hybrid models.

“Obviously hybrids are a big part of the news and have been for a while but not necessarily a big part of sales when we look at market share,” Anderson stated.

As of the third quarter of 2010, Experian’s data showed hybrids represented just 0.74 percent of the vehicles in operation. There were more than 240.3 million units on the roads at the time.

Experian’s hybrid sales data that went back to the first quarter of 2008 showed the percentage for these models came in at just below 8 percent. With the exception of an uptick between the fourth quarter of 2008 and the second quarter of 2009, hybrid sales have drifted lower — to below 4 percent at the third quarter of last year.

And as many dealers already know, hybrid sales are dominated by one particular unit. Toyota Prius sales constituted 64 percent of all hybrid sales during the third quarter of 2010.

Experian also discovered that four vehicles that have hybrid options — the Ford Fusion, Nissan Altima, Honda Civic and Toyota Camry — all are showing sagging sales performances. The largest downward movement has been for the Camry, dropping from a sales share of above 12 percent back in the first quarter of 2008 to down below 2 percent during the third and fourth quarters of 2009 before recovering slightly going into the latter half of last year.

“As there are more hybrids in the market and more advances are made in technology, the costs will come down. As gas prices go up, too, it makes it all very interesting as to how consumers make their choices,” Anderson speculated.

Analysis of Corporate & Brand Loyalty

Experian also went into its usual review of corporate and brand loyalty. The firm defines corporate loyalty as a measure of whether a new-vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the corporate level — including all brands under the corporate umbrella. Experian expresses brand loyalty as whether a new-vehicle purchase matches a prior new vehicle owned at the brand level.

With that as a backdrop, Anderson indicated Ford remained the corporate loyalty leader for the third quarter of last year, coming in with a penetration of 47.8 percent. Right behind it was General Motors at 47.1 percent and Toyota at 46.8 percent.

Anderson pointed out the continued gain for Hyundai, which had a corporate loyalty figure at 46.0 percent. Hyundai widened its advantage over Honda (42.6 percent).

Experian also mentioned the positive gains made by Chrysler, whose corporate loyalty level increased to 32.5 percent, the highest point it has been since before October 2009 and a mark approaching Nissan’s level, which was 35.4 percent.

Reflecting its overall loyalty command, Experian determined Ford held six of the top 10 models for brand loyalty in the third quarter of last year. These vehicles included the Fusion, Edge, Flex, Five Hundred, Focus and Escape.

While the Chevrolet Impala finished sixth on this list, the other three spots were taken up by Kia, including brand loyalty for the Kia Forte that approached 70 percent. The other two Kia models Experian mentioned were the Soul and Sorento.