Edmunds.com: 2011 New-Vehicle Sales Off to Steady Start

Being that today marks the last day for January new-vehicle sales, Edmunds.com offered an upbeat sales prediction, calling it “an impressive jumping-off point for 2011.”

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The site thinks January new-vehicle sales, including fleet, will come in at approximately 816,000 units, which would be a 17.3-percent increase from January of last year, but a 28.4-percent decrease from December.

Edmunds.com projects January retail sales will be about 661,000 units, down from approximately 947,000 last month.

As a result site analysts predict that January’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate will be 12.57 million, up from 12.48 in December 2010. They noted the SAAR for retail sales is about 10.2 million, down slightly from last month.

Also according to Edmunds.com, average automaker incentives in the U.S. are estimated to average $2,516 per vehicle sold in January. That amount is down $22, or 0.9 percent, from December, but up $163, or 6.9 percent, from January 2010.

“January’s sales figures continue a trend of steady, sustainable growth for the auto industry,” Edmunds.com senior analyst Jessica Caldwell noted.

“What’s even more encouraging is that this month’s figures were less dependent on fleet sales than last year,” Caldwell continued. “That means 2011 is already seeing a more robust retail market supported by individual consumers.”

The site pointed out January had 24 selling days, the same number as last January.

“January is typically the worst sales month of the calendar year, so this is an impressive jumping-off point for 2011,” added Caldwell. “Because this year’s January baseline is so much higher than the last two years, carmakers can be reasonably optimistic that this growth can continue.”

The combined monthly U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors is estimated to be 44.8 percent in January. Edmunds.com indicated that penetration is down from 45.6 percent in January of last year but the same as December.

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Edmunds.com January 2011 New-Car Sales Market Forecast: