WESTLAKE VILLAGE, Calif. -

A swift bounce-back from the winter storms that plagued large parts of the U.S. this winter has helped push what J.D. Power and Associates predicts will be a sequential increase in the new-vehicle retail selling rate during February.

Based on the February’s first 11 selling days, J.D. Power is projecting the month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate for retail sales will come in at 10.3 million units. The firm foresees strength in February’s retail sales even though this time of year is usually soft.

The firm is predicting that new retail sales will hit 727,500 vehicles by the end of February, which compares to 644,695 vehicles in January and 567,942 units a year ago.

The resulting retail SAAR would be 10.3 million vehicles, up from the February 2010 pace of 8 million vehicles. J.D. Power indicated that this would be second month where the SAAR increase from the year-ago period exceeds 2 million. The retail SAAR in January was 10.2 million units.

“Retail sales in February got off to a slow start due to the snowstorms that affected the country from the Midwest to the Northeast,” explained Jeff Schuster, J.D. Power’s executive director of global forecasting.

“However, the market rebounded quickly in the days that followed, leading to a slightly stronger selling rate than in January,” he added.

As far as total light-vehicle sales (including fleet), J.D. Power is projecting that these will hit 913,000 units for February, a year-over-year increase of 17 percent and close to a 12-percent gain from January.

Fleet sales are projected to be steady and reach 186,000 units for the month. Fleet penetration of total sales is predicted at 20 percent.

The total SAAR is forecasted 12.4 million, compared to 12.6 million in January and 10.5 million in February 2010.

Projections for 2011

Continuing on, J.D. Power also offered its predictions for the rest of the year, saying that it “continues to be positive.”

The company has predicted retail sales of 10.5 million vehicles, which would be a 15-percent year-over-year leap. J.D. Power is looking for 13 million units as the total sales mark. This would be a 12-percent improvement.

“The stronger retail environment, guided by the new business model that the industry is operating under, is an encouraging signal for 2011,” stated John Humphrey, J.D. Power’s senior vice president of automotive operations. “While fleet sales are not expected to grow at the same rate as retail, a rebound in more profitable commercial and governmental fleet volume will make up a larger proportion of the fleet mix in 2011.”

Production Increases

Moving along to delve into North American production numbers, J.D. Power noted that close to 1 million units were built during January. This was 14 percent more vehicles than the number built during the first month of 2010.

J.D. Power is predicted first-quarter volume to climb 13 percent year-over-year and reach 3.2 million units. The increase for the second half of 2011 is expected to lessen, though.

Specifically, the firm is predicting second-half production of 6.1 million vehicles, up 4 percent from the 5.9 million units that were built in the final half of last year.

J.D. Power has ramped up its full-year production forecast. It now believes there will be 12.8 million units produced, compared to its prior estimation of 12.6 million units. A more robust demand forecast pushed the uptick.

The projected full-year production number would be up almost 8 percent from the prior year.

As far as days’ supply, this came was at 71 days at the close of last month. When 2010 ended, days’ supply was 55.

That said, the 71-day level is steady from the year-ago sum. Furthermore,  the five-year average for January is 85 days.

Inventory levels were at 2.4 million, compared to 2.3 million.